The Seattle Mariners were blown out by the New York Yankees on Tuesday night, as their playoff chances continue to plummet.
They’ll turn to emerging star Bryce Miller as they look to grind out a much-needed win on home soil.
Yankees vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Bryce Miller Under 2.5 earned runs (-135 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Although Bryce Miller was shelled for four earned runs in his home debut against Boston, the Seattle Mariners right-hander has since been untouchable on home soil, allowing two or fewer in 13 of his past 14 starts. Miller has surrendered only 16 runs over the past 14 games in Seattle, which equates to just 1.14 per start.
Miller owns a .262 xwOBA over the past 30 days, and the OPS he’s given up is 100+ points below the MLB average in that span.
They can’t afford to waste a single game, which means the plug will be pulled on Miller if and when he runs into any sort of trouble.
As long as Miller can survive against Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, he shouldn’t have much trouble with the rest of the New York lineup.
Aaron Judge pick: Walking on Sunshine
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 walks (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
If it wasn't already clear to bettors, Judge is a BB machine. Whether it be his great eye at the plate, or teams simply not wanting to to pitch to him, this leads to a ton of free passes for the Yankees superstar.
Judge has walked at least once in 61% of his games this season and 70% over the past 20. Perhaps more noteworthy, he’s walked in 10 straight against the Mariners — and there’s every reason to believe he’ll make it 11.
The Mariners are playing for their season. They can’t afford to lose and Judge is as likely as any player in the league to cause them harm. If there is an opportunity to dance around him, they’ll happily do so and take their chances with somebody else.
Look for the Mariners to proceed with extreme caution against the New York captain tonight.
Yankees vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Bryce Miller Under 2.5 earned runs
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 walks
Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 hits
Miller has allowed two runs or fewer in 13 of 14 at home while Judge is a walk machine who has earned a free pass in 10 straight vs. the Mariners. There’s a lot to like with both of them.
Coming off a four-hit performance, Julio Rodriguez is another player worth backing in this contest. He has hit left-handed pitchers extremely well this season (.287 batting average), while Nestor Cortes has seen his hit total (4.5) be eclipsed in 73% of road games on the year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Mariners odds
Yankees vs Mariners live odds
Yankees vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -116 | Seattle +107
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+147) | Seattle +1.5 (-164)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-107) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Yankees vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees opened -116 favorites at Pinnacle and currently sit at -119.
- Pinnacle has moved from -107 for Over 7.5 to -109. The pitchers are getting respect in a high-stakes game.
- New York has only hit the team total Over in 38 of its last 87 games (-21.05 Units / -20% ROI).
- Seattle has hit the team total Over in 13 of its last 16 games at home (+10.05 Units / 52% ROI).
Yankees vs Mariners trend
Bryce Miller has held opponents to fewer than two runs in four of his past five in Seattle. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners.
Yankees vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Root Sports |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (9-10, 3.90 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryce Miller (11-8, 3.12 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mariners latest injuries
Yankees vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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