The New York Yankees will try to recover from a devastating loss on Sunday as they visit the Atlanta Braves for a three-game series beginning on Monday.
New York is now in last place in the AL East and is also five games out in the American League wild-card race. The Braves lost their series finale to the New York Mets, but still hold the best record in the majors and an 11-game lead in the NL East.
The Yankees desperately need wins to stay in the playoff race. While they’ll face a tough test against Max Fried, they have confidence in their own starter, Clarke Schmidt. We’ll break down the matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Braves on August 14.
Yankees vs Braves odds
Yankees vs Braves predictions
The New York Yankees have been a disappointment in 2023, but they’ve been pleasantly surprised with what they’ve gotten out of starter Clarke Schmidt. After a rough beginning, the 27-year-old has been riding a long streak of solid outings. Schmidt hasn’t given up more than three runs in a start since May 14, a stretch of 14 starts.
Schmidt will need to continue that form if the Yankees are going to have a chance on Monday. The Atlanta Braves are the highest-scoring team in the majors, averaging a hefty 5.85 runs per game. Atlanta has put up 8.13 runs per game over its last eight contests, though that number is buoyed by an embarrassing 21-3 win over the Mets on Friday.
The Braves have a proven commodity taking the ball on Monday, as Max Fried will continue his return from a forearm strain that cost him three months on the injured list. Despite the lack of starts, Fried has been his dominant self when he’s been on the mound in 2023, posting a 2.50 ERA across his seven starts.
The Yankees haven’t been putting up runs the way they expected to this year, with their offense actually ranking below average by league standards throughout the campaign. They’ve been struggling even more of late. In its last 24 games, New York is putting up just four runs per game, a meek output that has played a huge role in the team’s slide out of the playoff race.
Predicting that Fried can get the job done against the Yankees feels like the easiest part of the equation. That leaves us with one important question: can Schmidt put in another strong performance against a powerful Atlanta lineup?
I don’t expect Schmidt to completely shut down the Braves, but there’s no denying how well the righty has been throwing over the past three months. In the middle of May, his ERA stood at an unseemly 6.30, and he has brought it down over two runs since. Right now, we have every reason to believe that Schmidt is a far better pitcher than his overall numbers suggest.
With the total set at 9.0 flat, Schmidt doesn’t have to throw a shutout to keep the Under in play. Fried will keep the Yankees in check, and while he’s only making his third start since returning from his injury, he is capable of going deep. As long as Schmidt holds up his end of the bargain — and all signs suggest that he can do that — this game shouldn’t get out of hand. I’m backing the Under at generous odds tonight.
My best bet: Under 9 (+100 at PointsBet)
Yankees vs Braves same-game parlay
Under 9 (-105)
Braves -1.5 (-104)
Max Fried 6+ strikeouts (-111)
My same-game parlay tonight starts by taking the Under at a flat 9.0. We’ll build on that with a couple of bets that rely on my confidence in Fried to navigate the Yankees lineup.
First, I’m adding in a bet on the Braves -1.5 runs. This was nearly my best bet for the game, as Atlanta should be able to do just enough damage vs. Schmidt to get the best of the Yankees at home tonight.
Next, we’ll take Fried to strike out at least six Yankees in this game. Fried has struck out at least seven batters in three of his last four starts and is averaging 9.3 punchouts per nine innings this year. This also correlates well with both a Braves win and the Under, while still adding a lot of value to our SGP.
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Yankees vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Braves have always been a massive favorite in this game, opening as a -210 pick. That number is still the closest thing to a consensus moneyline out there, though you can get the Braves at -204 if you shop around. The best line available on the Yankees is +180.
Atlanta has been solid on the moneyline this year, making more than eight units for bettors. The Yankees have been a disappointment despite managing to stay above .500 on the season, and have lost over four units in 2023.
I don’t love the odds on the Braves, but they are the clear pick to win this game. Fried should get the best of a struggling Yankees lineup and allow the Atlanta offense to do the rest. While I’d recommend taking the Braves on the run line for the improved odds, Atlanta is clearly the play on the moneyline as well.
Tonight’s total was set at 9.0 and has remained at that number at most books. There’s a clear bias towards the Over, however. While you can get +100 on the Under, you can’t do better than -115 at any site I've checked today.
Atlanta has consistently been an Over team this year thanks to its league-best offensive output, with the Over going 64-51 in Braves games. The Under has a 60-53 mark for the Yankees this season.
I’m strongly backing the Under tonight. The pitching matchup is too strong to expect even Atlanta to carry this game to 10 runs or more, and with Fried on the mound, I don’t expect the Yankees to produce much in return. With the improved odds as an extra incentive, the Under is my best bet of the night if you plan on playing this game.
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Trend to know
The Under is 6-1-2 in the last nine games between the Braves and the Yankees. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Braves
Yankees vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Monday, August 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Bally Sports South |
Starting pitchers
Clarke Schmidt (8-6, 4.23 ERA): A quick look at Schmidt’s numbers gives the impression that he’s been nothing more than a reasonable back-of-the-rotation option for the Yankees. In reality, Schmidt has been one of New York’s most reliable starters after a disastrous first month or so of the season. Since May 19, Schmidt has put up a 3.12 ERA and a 7-2 record in 75 innings of work. Last time out, he allowed just one run on four hits over 5 1/3 innings against the White Sox on August 8.
Max Fried (3-1, 2.50 ERA): After contending for a Cy Young last year, Fried was set up for big things in 2023. However, a forearm strain sidelined the lefty for three months, which is why he’s only made seven starts this season. The Braves are now looking to prepare Fried for a postseason run, where he’ll be a key player for Atlanta. In his last start, Fried allowed four runs in four innings against the Pirates but all that damage came in one frame.
