White Sox vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Verlander Shuts Down Chicago

While a three-game interleague series between the Chicago White Sox and New York Mets might not get the juices flowing, both teams somehow remain in the playoff hunt as they take Citi Field for Game 2.

Coming off an offensive explosion in Tuesday’s 11-10 Mets win, the White Sox are nine games back in the AL Central as New York continues to fight for position to pull themselves back into the NL Wild-Card race (they’re eight games back). 

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Mets on Wednesday, July 19.

White Sox vs Mets odds

White Sox vs Mets predictions

Despite being at the ripe old age of 40 — and not pitching at the Cy Young level he was last year in Houston — Justin Verlander is still a trustworthy starter and has been at his best throughout July.

Across his last three outings, Verlander has given up just five earned runs on 12 hits. Even after struggling against the Los Angeles Dodgers last week, the White Sox are a far more favorable matchup for the nine-time All-Star.

As a team, the White Sox are batting .239. And while Luis Robert Jr. always poses a threat against fastball pitchers, he’s batting .233 against sliders this season. Verlander uses his slider 29.2% of the time, second to his fastball, and batters are only hitting .182 against it.

In Tuesday's game, the Pale Hose tallied 12 hits and took Carlos Carrasco and the Mets bullpen to the cleaners (and still lost thanks to Lucas Giolito serving up three homers). Leading the way for the White Sox were Tim Anderson, Andrew Benintendi, and Yasmani Grandal, who all had at least two hits and two runs. That hasn't been the norm this season.

That trio has a combined -5 run value against four-seam fastballs — Verlander’s go-to pitch 49.2% of the time — this season. The main concern is Grandal’s success against sliders (he’s batting .333 with a run value of 3), but Anderson and Benintendi are both under the Mendoza line against that secondary offering with a combined run value of -13.

With the way he’s pitched this month combined with the matchup, Verlander's set up to have a clean pitching performance. The White Sox, like lightning, won't strike twice in the same spot.

My best bet: Justin Verlander Under 2.5 earned runs (-125)

White Sox vs Mets same-game parlay

Justin Verlander Under 2.5 earned runs (-130)

Under 8.5 runs (-105)

Under 12.5 hits (+425)

+O525 at bet365

If Verlander takes advantage of the matchup and cools the White Sox bats, this should be a low-scoring affair.

Of course, this also puts trust in Touki Toussaint to put together an admirable performance in just his fourth start of the season, and his second for the Sox.

This is a big opportunity for Toussaint, who leans on his curveball — his highest usage pitch — 35.1% of the time. Batters are only hitting .154 against his curve and the Mets as a team are batting just .238 this season.

The biggest threats on the Mets to this same-game parlay will be Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Tommy Pham. But Alonso and Lindor are batting just .143 and .205, respectively, against curveballs this season with a run value of -4, so they could theoretically be neutralized. 

Pham is the only real concern with his .333 average against curves, but his .272 against fastballs and .247 against sinkers — Toussaint’s second and third most common pitches — should alleviate some of that worry.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

White Sox vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Mets managed to hold on in last night’s high-flying thriller as -133 home favorites after some questionable pitching from both sides. Game 2 should be smoother sailing with the way Verlander has been pitching for most of July.

Tonight’s moneyline opened anywhere from -200 to -225, depending on the book, in favor of the Metropolitans and after some line movement, most books have settled in between -210 and -225.

New York is the heavy favorite on a modest two-game winning streak with a brand-name pitcher set to take the stage. The Mets have quietly been on a bit of a hot streak, hitting the moneyline in eight of their last 12 games. 

After Sunday’s 2-1 win over the Dodgers, which included a strong showing from Max Scherzer, manager Buck Showalter highlighted the importance of this pitching staff.

"Every time we win, I hope it's a starting point of some consistent good baseball," he said. "And it starts with pitching. We've gotten some quality innings, especially out of our starters here.”

The total opened at 8.5 and 9 at most books and has stayed steady at 8.5, with the Under available at +100 at some books.

Trend to know

The White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Mets

White Sox vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Touki Toussaint (0-2, 3.38 ERA): It’s been a bumpy ride for Toussaint, who was taken with the 16th pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2014 MLB Draft. After toiling with the Atlanta Braves, LA Angels, and Cleveland Guardians, he seems to have found a home in the Windy City. The 27-year-old has yet to finish six innings this season but has improved with each appearance in July. He pitched a season-best 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Braves, giving up one run and striking out four batters.

Justin Verlander (3-5, 3.72 ERA): More credence should be given to Verlander for the job he’s done as a 40-year-old pitcher. While he’s not the Cy Young winner he was in Detroit or Houston anymore, he’s pitched well given the circumstances. He’s won just about everything you can as a pitcher — MVP, three Cy Youngs, two World Series, Rookie of the Year — and still has gas in the tank. After some hiccups in late May and throughout June, he appears to have settled down and has put his early-season injury in the rearview.

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