White Sox vs Guardians Game 1 Picks and Predictions: The Ultimate Dallas Keuchel Fade

In our White Sox vs. Guardians betting preview, we scour the market for ways to best fade Dallas Keuchel — the Chicago hurler who's been a near career-worst version of himself of late. We break it all down in our MLB betting picks below.

Last Updated: Apr 20, 2022 8:17 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

After two days of weather postponements, the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians will finally begin their four-game set, with the first of a double-header going down Wednesday afternoon at Progressive Field.

MLB betting lines opened with this game as close to a pick'em, but the Guardians are -135 home favorites as of writing.

Here are our best free White Sox vs. Guardians MLB picks and predictions for April 20, with the first pitch scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET.

White Sox vs Guardians odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with Cleveland at -115 and the total at 8. After Bieber was announced as the starter, the line shifted to favor the Guardians from -135 to -150, while the total ticked down to 7.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

White Sox vs Guardians predictions

Picks made on 4/18/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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White Sox vs Guardians game info

Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date: Wednesday, April 20, 2022
First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: NBC Sports Chicago, Bally Sports Great Lakes

White Sox vs Guardians betting preview

Starting pitchers

Shane Bieber (0-0, 2.70 ERA): The 2020 AL Cy Young winner was hampered by a shoulder injury last year but still finished with a 3.27 ERA and 134 punchouts in 94 2-3 innings. He's had mixed results in a pair of starts so far this year, allowing only four hits in 10 innings but struggled with his control in his last outing and his strikeout rate has plummeted. 

Dallas Keuchel LHP (1-0, 5.40 ERA): The 34-year-old pitched to a 5.28 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and a .290 OBA in 162 innings last season, his worst campaign since his sophomore season almost a decade ago. In his first start of the year last Wednesday, he allowed six hits and three runs through five innings of work versus the Mariners.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

White Sox: AJ Pollock CF (Out), Yoan Moncada 3B (Out), Yermin Mercedes 1B (Out), Joe Kelly RP (Out), Garrett Crochet RP (Out), Ryan Burr RP (Out).
Guardians: James Karinchak RP (Out), Yu Chang SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The White Sox are 11-4 in their last 15 games vs. right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Guardians.

White Sox vs Guardians picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Chicago White Sox entered this season with high expectations and are currently third on the World Series futures board. They are coming off a 9-3 loss against Tampa Bay but had won six of their previous seven games. 

The Guardians are coming off an ugly home series against the Giants where they were swept and mustered a total of just four runs. That was a very disappointing result for Cleveland who had looked like one of MLB's best offensive teams heading into that series.

Despite that cold stretch, the Guardians still rank third in the bigs in OPS (.793) and should have an easier time today as they take on Dallas Keuchel, who isn't quite on the same level as the Giants' top of the rotation.

Keuchel is coming off a brutal 2021 season where he was booted from the rotation during the playoffs. The two-time All-Star had a strong debut with the Sox during the abbreviated 2020 season but looked awful last year and his career-worst 39.8 hard-hit percentage was way too high for someone who gives up as much contact as he does. 

Shane Bieber will take to the hill for Cleveland today. The right-hander had an incredible 2020 season but took a step back last year due to a shoulder injury. There are question marks about Bieber and how strong that shoulder is but he's still a much better option than Keuchel and has allowed opposing batters to hit just .118 this year. 

He also had plenty of success in four starts against the ChiSox last year, pitching to a 1.80 ERA with an OBA of .169 in 25 innings. We'll back the Guardians and the superior starter with a relatively low vig. 

Prediction: Guardians ML (-135 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

We mentioned that the Guardians struggled to plate runs in their most recent series but this is still a team that ranks near the top of the majors in most hitting categories. 

The Guardians have been getting excellent production out of youngsters Myles Straw, Steven Kwan, and Owen Miller. Meanwhile, All-Star third baseman Jose Ramirez (slashing .457/.500/.886) is more than playing up to the $124 million extension he signed earlier this month. 

Keuchel has really struggled since the start of last season and even his productive 2020 campaign was marred by poor analytics which indicated that he had merely been lucky over a relatively small sample size. He also pitched poorly against Cleveland last year, surrendering nine runs through 11 1-3 innings across a pair of starts. 

Although the White Sox won't have an easy time against Bieber, there is reason to suspect that he isn't the dominant hurler that he was two years ago. Bieber was practically unhittable in 2020 but his velocity dipped last year and it's been even worse so far this season, dropping to an average of 90.8 mph.

That's bad news against a dangerous Chicago lineup that is making contact but hasn't been lucky. The ChiSox are batting just .228 but their expected batting average (.299) and expected slugging percentage (.615) are easily the highest marks in the majors.

The ChiSox might not light up the Biebs but the aura of invincibility isn't there anymore. 

Prediction: Over 7.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Best bet

It almost feels to keep dumping on Keuchel in this one but there's a reason he was bounced from the rotation last fall. The lefty is a relic from another era and has been beyond awful of late.

In 17 starts since the start of last July, Keuhel has pitched to a 6.69 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP through 80 2-3 innings.

Although the White Sox bullpen entered this season projected to be one of the best in the bigs, it's been hit hard by injuries to Joe Kelly, Garrett Crochet, and Ryan Burr. Chicago's relievers currently rank among the Bottom-6 teams in the majors with a collective WHIP of 1.41 and an OBA of .248. 

Add in a Cleveland lineup that's been overachieving and ranks third in the majors with a batting average of .273 and we like the Guardians to end up with the most hits tonight.

Pick: Most hits - Guardians (-105 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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