Twins vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Musgrove in a Groove

The first game of this interleague series was a blowout.

The Padres (56-45) hung 10 earned runs on Twins (52-47) starting pitcher Joe Ryan en route to a 10-1 victory.

The Padres are holding onto an NL Wild Card spot and look to finish strong in order to keep the playoff dream alive. The Twins, meanwhile, hold a narrow one-game advantage over the Guardians in the NL Central.

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Minnesota Twins and the San Diego Padres on July 30, 2022.

Twins vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Padres opened -130 and the line has moved slightly in their direction in most spots. Currently, they reside between -127 and -141 depending on the book. The total is set at 7.5 across all books and has not moved since the opener. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Twins vs Padres predictions

• Prediction: Padres ML (-127)
• Prediction: Under 7.5 (-112)
• Best bet: Under 7.5 (-112)

Picks made on 7/30/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Twins vs Padres game info

• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Saturday, July 30, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Twins vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Sonny Gray (5-3, 3.52 ERA): This marks Gray’s first year in Minnesota. He began his career in 2013 as a rookie phenom for Oakland and has become a middle-of-the-rotation piece. His 3.52 ERA is the lowest it’s been since 2019 and his 3.27 xERA is a good indicator of future success. The lowest home run to fly ball ratio rate of his career (8.2%) can likely be explained by the fact that he has a fantastic barrel rate (3.9%).

Joe Musgrove (8-3, 2.63 ERA): Musgrove and the Padres are in discussions to finalize a contract extension that is expected to be signed by early next week. The deal is for a reported 5-year, $100-million dollars. San Diego loved what they’ve seen from Musgrove this year, who has a spectacular 2.63 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Anytime you have a WHIP below 1.00, you’re doing something right! The road has been a little bumpy lately, as he’s allowed nine earned runs across his last two starts. 

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 15-5 in the Padres’ last 20 Game 2s of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Padres

Twins vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

I give the starting pitching advantage to San Diego in this spot. Musgrove has struggled recently, allowing nine earned runs across his last two starts. Still, there’s a reason that he was named to the NL All-Star team, and there’s a reason why San Diego is reportedly willing to shell out $100 million dollars to keep him in town.

It’s because he’s been damn good this year! Musgrove’s 2.63 ERA looksimpressive, but it gets more shine in this matchup when you consider that he has a 2.20 ERA at Petco park. He’s doing a great job of limiting hard contact and is allowing just a 4.1% barrel rate, an elite number for a starting pitcher.

This may seem like a difficult matchup on paper, but the Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 home games against teams with winning records. They’ve been solid in interleague play, going 13-5 in their last 18 meetings with winning AL teams. 

The Twins don’t have quite the same numbers, going just 1-6 in their last seven against winnings teams and 0-4 in their last four interleague road games. 

After a strong Game 1 of the series in which the Padres plated 10 runs, I’m backing them Saturday with their ace on the mound. They’re 12-5 when Musgrove pitches this season and that’s a record I can’t ignore. 

Prediction: Padres moneyline (-127 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

I’ll get straight to the point — I like the Under in this matchup because I’m a fan of both starting pitchers.

Musgrove has been fantastic this season, with a WHIP below 1.00. He has a strong 2.20 ERA at Petco Park this season, allowing just 11 earned runs across 64.3 innings.

Gray has solid numbers and his 3.27 xERA gives me confidence. He’s been better on the road than he’s been at home, with a 2.97 ERA in away games and a 3.96 ERA at home.

The Under is 5-1 in the Padres’ last six Saturday games and 15-5 in their last 20 Game 2s of a series. Also, the Under is 19-9 in their last 28 home games against a right-handed starter. 

The Padres did hang a crooked number in Game 1, but their lineup ranks just 20th in wRC+ in the month of July. That number is better for the Twins (seventh in wRC+) but this is a difficult matchup against Musgrove.

I think there’s reason to expect a low-scoring affair and will be targeting the Under. Both teams have identical bullpen ERAs (3.88), while Musgrove has a 2.20 ERA at home and Gray has a 2.97 ERA on the road.

Prediction: Under 7.5 (-112 at Unibet)

Best bet

I’m backing the Under as my best bet.

I’ll be playing the Padres on the moneyline as well because Musgrove’s 2.20 ERA at Petco Park is simply too good to ignore. The reason I’m rocking with the Under as the best bet is that the Padres’ lineup hasn’t been totally trustworthy, ranking 20th in wRC+ in the month of July. Sonny Gray has a 2.97 ERA on the road and is a solid pitcher in his own right with good peripherals.

There’s reason to expect both starting pitchers to be effective in this matchup, so I’m taking the Under.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-112 at Unibet)

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