Two teams looking to hang on to their current playoff positions will face off on Monday night as the Minnesota Twins visit the New York Mets at Citi Field.
Minnesota currently holds the AL's second Wild Card spot and are favorites to make the playoffs according to the latest MLB odds, while the Mets are hanging on to the final NL Wild Card.
I’ll take a look at what bettors can get out of this important interleague matchup in my Twins vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks below.
Twins vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Minnesota Twins and New York Mets are among the highest-scoring teams in the majors this season, with both teams averaging over 4.8 runs per game. And while New York’s ascension to the ranks of the league’s best slugging lineups over the last two months has been well documented, the Twins have been similarly productive as we’ve moved into the summer.
Since the start of June, the Twins have averaged 5.34 runs per game, with the team hitting .277 during that span. Those numbers would make Minnesota the best offensive team in the majors if they were carried over to the entire season, as would its .796 OPS in July.
The Twins have been especially effective against left-handed pitching. On the year, Minnesota is hitting .277 with a .778 OPS against southpaws, both significantly better than their numbers against righties this year.
That’s not a surprise, as the Minnesota lineup is loaded with quality right-handed bats, including Byron Buxton, the switch-hitting Carlos Santana, and Jose Miranda, though the latter may sit out on Monday after taking a scary fastball to the head yesterday.
That Twins lineup will face off against Jose Quintana on Monday night. He's seemingly been solid for the Mets, going 5-6 with a 4.02 ERA, but even those pedestrian numbers might be overstating his value this season, as several numbers suggest he’s overperforming in 2024.
Quintana has been hit hard by the home run ball, allowing opposing teams to go deep 1.5 times per nine innings. His 1.276 WHIP is largely due to struggles with his control, as he’s allowing 3.3 walks per nine innings. Overall, these numbers have his FIP at a concerning 5.06, suggesting he may be in for a rough second half if his peripherals don’t improve.
The Twins will counter with rookie right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson, who has been excellent in his first full year in the majors.
The 23-year-old is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA and is pitching to a solid 1.114 WHIP, but he only averages 5.18 innings per outing, meaning he’ll have to give way to an average Minnesota bullpen — and the Mets are likely to continue doing at least some damage no matter who they face.
This is a game where both teams are liable to score runs, and both have regularly played to totals above nine runs this season. I’m taking the Over.
Twins vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Twins moneyline
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 hits
We should see some fireworks in Queens tonight and that’s what I’m banking on for my SGP. That starts with taking the Over, which I’m pairing with an outright win for the Twins. Minnesota has a big edge on the mound and a nice matchup against Quintana. I expect that to be the difference tonight.
I’ll also take Byron Buxton to get at least one hit. He's hitting .284 against left-handed pitching and seems to be coming out of a recent slump with three hits in his last three games, making him an excellent pick to get a knock.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Mets odds
Twins vs Mets live odds
Twins vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-205) | New York -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +100 | New York -120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Twins vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both teams have been solid on the moneyline this season, with the Mets up 3.5 units for bettors and the Twins up two units on the year.
- New York is 11-9 in Quintana’s starts this season, while Minnesota has gone 12-5 when Woods Richardson takes the mound.
- The Twins are playing to an average of 9.22 runs per game, while the Mets are averaging a total of 9.49 runs.
- The Over has done well when these teams play, going 53-49 in Minnesota’s games and 56-46 in New York’s contests.
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Twins vs Mets trend
The Over is 6-2 in the Twins' last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Mets.
Twins vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 7-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, SNY |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Simeon Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.27 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (5-6, 4.02 ERA) |
Twins vs Mets latest injuries
Twins vs Mets weather
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