Italy can advance to the next stage with a win or a low-scoring loss, while it is do-or-die for Mexico.
With so much riding on this Pool B finale, my Italy vs. Mexico predictions expect a tight, nail-biting affair.
Let’s take a closer look at my World Baseball Classic best bets for Wednesday, March 11.
Italy vs Mexico prediction
Italy vs Mexico best bet: Under 8 (-130 at DraftKings)
Despite Mexico’s pool leading +20 run differential, they are not currently holding onto a Top-2 seed. They must win to advance in this tournament.
They are an elite run prevention side — they’ve conceded only seven runs through three games — and will lean on that in this do-or-die affair.
While Italy could still advance with a loss, they need to hold Mexico to four runs or fewer. That gives them an incentive to have all hands on deck to keep the runs down.
They will have ace Aaron Nola on the hill to start this game, so they’re certainly well equipped to do so.
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Italy vs Mexico same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Mexico moneyline
Jonathan Aranda 1+ hit
Mexico is playing for its tournament and rank 1st in its group in both run differential and runs allowed. They possess more depth throughout their lineup than Italy, which should make the difference.
Jonathan Aranda is a high-contact hitter who excels against right-handed pitching. He has picked up four knocks through three games and should build on those totals tonight.
Jarren Duran star player prop
Jarren Duran best bet: 1+ run (-115 at DraftKings)
Duran has lived on the basepaths in this tournament, hitting safely in five of 10 at-bats while also picking up a walk. With his speed and several contact hitters behind him, he’s a threat to score any time he gets on.
Italy vs Mexico opening odds
- Moneyline: Italy +235 | Mexico -310
- Run line: Italy +1.5 (+110) | Mexico -1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
How to watch Italy vs Mexico and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, March 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Tubi |
| Italy starting pitcher | Aaron Nola |
| Mexico starting pitcher | TBD |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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