The second and final game of this quick interleague series gets underway this afternoon with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Minnesota Twins.
Milwaukee capitalized on a monster five-run sixth inning to secure a 7-3 victory in Tuesday’s contest.
Will the Brewers take care of business once again, or can the Twins split the series? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs Brewers on Wednesday, August 23.
Twins vs Brewers odds
Twins vs Brewers predictions
Right-hander Corbin Burnes takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he should be a good candidate to back. Through 25 starts this season, Milwaukee’s ace is 9-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Burnes was brilliant his last time out, tossing seven shutout frames while allowing just two hits and racking up nine strikeouts against a much tougher Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. In fact, Burnes has been dominant since the beginning of June, going 4-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his past nine starts.
His underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely for the remainder of the year as the right-hander ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xERA/xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel rate. He also ranks in the 65th percentile or higher in strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rate, which is the avenue we’re backing in this game.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 8.5, a total he just surpassed in that aforementioned start against the Dodgers. This strikeout success is likely to continue against the Minnesota Twins.
A below-average team at the dish, Minnesota ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, and OPS. With that said, the Twins struggle the most at avoiding punchouts, ranking last in K% when facing right-handed pitching this year.
Looking at Wednesday’s projected starting lineup, all nine hitters possess a K% north of 22 this season. These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Burnes.
Through 68 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Minnesota lineup owns a fade-worthy 33.8 K% and 32.2 Whiff%.
My best bet: Corbin Burnes Over 8.5 strikeouts (+115)
Twins vs Brewers same-game parlay
Corbin Burnes Over 8.5 strikeouts (-104)
Under 8 (-115)
Brewers moneyline (-144)
While Burnes should be a good candidate to back, right-hander Kenta Maeda should also put together a strong performance for the Twins. Through 14 starts this season, Maeda has a 4.13 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also solid as the right-hander ranks in the 65th percentile in both xERA/xwOBA and xBA. However, Burnes still paces him in every metric across the board.
Neither of these lineups are particularly impressive, with each team ranking in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, and OPS. If we get a pitcher’s duel and a low-scoring affair, give me Burnes in this matchup every time.
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Twins vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Brewers opened as a –144 favorite and have stayed at that number at the time of writing. While this may look like an extremely favorable line for Burnes pitching at home, Maeda has been a reliable force in Minnesota's rotation.
Over his past 10 starts, Maeda boasts a 2.68 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. That brings us to the total, which opened at 8.5 and was quickly bet down to eight. This line movement makes sense considering Maeda is a better pitcher than his surface-level stats indicate, which are heavily weighted by one atrocious start against the New York Yankees back in April.
With that said, Burnes still paces him in every metric across the board, and he should be a great candidate to back in what could be a low-scoring affair.
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Trend to know
Burnes has recorded nine or more strikeouts in two of his past three starts against Minnesota. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Brewers
Twins vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Minnesota, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
Starting pitchers
Kenta Maeda (3-7, 4.13 ERA): Maeda has been a reliable veteran for Minnesota when healthy, and his relatively middle-of-the-road surface-level stats are misleading. On April 26, he got absolutely shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs on 11 hits through just three innings. However, in his 10 starts since then, Maeda boasts a 2.68 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
Corbin Burnes (9-6, 3.43 ERA): Burnes has returned to his former Cy Young-caliber self over the second half of the campaign, capped off by his most recent dominant performance vs. the Dodgers. He has three shutout performances over his past seven starts, and he could be hitting his stride at just the right time for a Milwaukee team that looks to hold onto first place in the NL Central.
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