An unlikely pitchers’ duel could be in the cards on Saturday.
The red-hot Orioles may have finally allowed a run, but they’re still as dangerous as ever with a fourth straight win coming on Friday evening. Baltimore has now won eight of its last 10 and has allowed just the one run in its last three games, but will the streak continue on Saturday?
Let’s break down Tigers vs. Orioles in our MLB picks and predictions for April 22.
Tigers vs Orioles odds
Tigers vs Orioles predictions
This is a tough one to get a read on. Both starting pitchers are pretty bad, but the Tigers need more than just a little help from Kyle Gibson to put some serious numbers on the board. With that, I do think the Under could be the play on Saturday.
Joey Wentz isn’t an amazing pitcher by any means, but he is coming off a solid outing against the Giants where he allowed just a run on six hits over 5 2/3 innings with a walk and seven strikeouts. Why is this important? Well, Wentz has had issues with walks ever since arriving in the majors, but aside from a disaster at home against the Red Sox a couple of weeks ago, has been alright in that department.
The Orioles are fifth in wRC+ to lefties, but most of that is due to their great .207 ISO and incredible 13.6% walk rate. Those free passes surely won’t come at that rate all year long, and even against Wentz I’m not sure they’ll be filling the basepaths. Wentz, to his credit, has a better-than-average .350 xwOBA on contact for the year and a .331 for his career. He also has a low 6.8% career barrel rate.
Simply put, if you’re willing to believe that the Red Sox debacle was a one-off, then Wentz might be a solid bet in this spot. He’s not a guy who allows a lot of loud contact, and while he’s had issues with walks, he’s looked better this season. I think that’s reason enough to take the Under here.
My best bet: Under 8 (-108 at Pinnacle)
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Tigers vs Orioles moneyline analysis
Yeah, I’d lean towards the Tigers here if I had to pick a side. The value on +155 is pretty crazy when you consider what I’ve said above about Wentz, and for all the buzz about this Orioles offense, they’ve been quiet lately, with just seven runs in their last three games.
The issue here is going to be this Tigers offense, which has a 71 wRC+ to rank 29th of 30 teams this season. They’re sitting at just a .119 ISO with a high 25.1% strikeout rate. Even with that, they should have a chance given how bad Gibson has been for the O’s.
Gibson owns a 5.42 xERA on account of more barrels and fewer strikeouts this season. He’s punched out just 13.8% of the batters he’s seen, which should offer Detroit some reprieve here.
Tigers vs Orioles Over/Under analysis
While I don’t love Gibson in this spot against Detroit, the main reason I do like the Under is that it’s very hard to believe the Tigers produce the at-bats necessary to actually exploit how bad Gibson has been.
On top of that, the right-hander is only sporting a 36.5% hard-hit rate and has still gotten 44.6% of his contact to come back on the ground. That’s what a sinker-baller like Gibson is looking for, though that number has been coming down in recent years.
Detroit is just 22nd in barrels per plate appearance, and with its inability to get the ball in the air, I don’t think Gibson should have to work very hard.
Tigers vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, April 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Tigers vs Orioles betting preview
Starting pitchers
Joey Wentz (0-2, 6.39 ERA): The left-hander owns a 6.39 ERA through three starts, but his 4.35 xERA offers some hope. He’s never been one to strike many out at the major-league level, but if Wentz can limit walks (10.1% walk rate for his career) then he can be dangerous.
Kyle Gibson (3-0, 4.18 ERA): The career renaissance Gibson experienced two seasons ago seems like a distant memory. After a 5.05 last season in Philly, the 35-year-old is off and running with a 4.18 ERA in 2023. That’s come along with some troubling numbers, like a 5.42 xERA and a lower ground ball rate.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Tigers’ last four games. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Orioles
