Be careful with all the rain on the slate today, as most of the incoming rain is the PPD kind rather than the delay type that can sometimes help sharp MLB player prop bettors.
Despite the slimmer pickings, I'm backing a 6-foot-10 southpaw in Texas today, fading a poor-command rookie making his MLB debut in Arizona, and looking for an innings bounce-back from Walker Buehler on the road.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, July 21.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Noah Schultz |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +114 |
 Kohl Drake |
Under 3.5 strikeouts | +112 |
 Walker Buehler |
Over 14.5 outs | -105 |
Strikeout prop: Noah Schultz Over 4.5 strikeouts (+114)
The Rangers swing and miss vs. southpaws at a high rate, posting the MLB's fourth-worst K-rate vs. left-handed pitching.
Noah Schultz rolls into today's start with extra rest and projects for 85 pitches, but has a ceiling in the 90s. THE BAT has this fair price at around -110, and the projections at Covers are forecasting 4.71 punchouts on the road.
Schultz is a 22-year-old giant as a 6-foot-10 left-hander who might see the leash grow in relation to the White Sox's division hopes. He can blow past his K total, with four of his 11 starts going for 6+ punchouts.
He missed all of June with a knee injury, so this extended rest should be very beneficial. Texas might have the No. 4 offense vs. LHP with a wRC+ of 109, but the 25% K rate is the same as the Rockies.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rangers Sports Network, Chicago Sports Network.
Strikeout prop: Kohl Drake Under 3.5 strikeouts (+112)
Let's crap on a rookie making his MLB debut tonight in Arizona. With the litany of injuries in the Diamondbacks' rotation, Triple-A call-up Kohl Drake gets the ball. He brings a 7.00 ERA and 1.66 WHIP across his last two seasons at Triple-A.
He hasn't been a strikeout-per-inning arm during that stretch, and command could be a real issue at the next level after issuing 45 walks over his last 100 innings. He also gives up plenty of contact, allowing 122 hits — including 16 home runs — over those same 100 frames.
His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he mixes in a curveball, slider, and changeup, none of which grades above 50 on Baseball Savant.
THE BAT projects him for 78 pitches and just 3.7 strikeouts, making this a play down to even money. There is nothing like fading a young prospect in his MLB debut against a very good Athletics lineup.
I'm hoping the adrenaline gets pumping early and the command issues drive up the pitch count in a hurry.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, NBCSCA
Pitcher out prop: Walker Buehler Over 14.5 outs (-105)
Is Walker Buehler coming off his shortest start of the season before the break? Yes, he is. Has it been a great run over his last three starts for the San Diego right-hander? No, it hasn't.
But before this stretch of poor form, Buehler had gone five straight starts allowing just one run in each game and had cleared this number in nine of his previous 10 starts.
This isn't a big tax to pay for 15 outs with THE BAT projecting 86 pitches. He was even allowed to get to 15 outs two starts ago despite giving up seven runs and throwing 93 pitches, so the leash is there even when things aren't going well.
His spin rate and velocity haven't dropped during this rough stretch. The surface numbers are ugly, but his 4.71 xERA over his last four games compared to an 11.57 ERA shows there has been some bad luck involved.
Atlanta has also had stretches of stale offense over the last 30 days with a wRC+ below 100, and the winds are blowing in at Truist Park at 9 mph.
I would play this to -120.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Padres.TV
- Prop picks: 1-2, -1.1 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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