I’m coming off an 11-3 SU week for over +9 units and looking to keep the pitcher props rolling into the first full week of May. There is some rain in the East and solid-hitting conditions in Sacramento.
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Monday, May 5.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 5
Ortiz u4.5 strikeouts (+100)
Severino o2.5 earned runs (-121)
Singer u1.5 walks (+133)
Today's SP best bets
Guardians vs. Nationals
The angle: Rain could shorten Luis Ortiz and his K rate is likely an outlier
The move: Luis Ortiz Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100 at Caesars)
There is the potential for delay in D.C., which is giving some value to the pitcher Unders. Cleveland Guardians starter Luis Ortiz is already projecting for 91 pitches and 4.4 Ks, per THE BAT and that could be affected by the potential rain. This game could be PPD but that would just void the bet.
Ortiz has been better than a K/inning pitcher this year but looking back at his last three seasons, he has just 202 punchouts in 254+ innings pitched. He also is a pitcher with a ton of walk issues which drives up his pitch count. His four-game stretch of 31 Ks over 21 innings seems more like an outlier than what to expect from the starter today and going forward.
Mariners vs. Athletics
The angle: There are great hitting conditions in Sacramento and Severino is pitching above his number
The move: Luis Severino Over 2.5 earned runs (-121 at Caesars)
THE BAT is projecting 3.06 earned runs from the home-side starter, who could throw 100+ pitches tonight and get his 18 outs.
It’s going to be tough to dodge three or more runs tonight in Sacramento with big winds and mid-80 temperatures. A's right-hander Luis Severino has not pitched well at Sutter Health Park, surrendering 14 runs over 24+ innings at the interim home stadium. He is 3-1 to the Over at home on this prop. His expected metrics are also showing that he might be pitching above his numbers this year.
Reds at Braves
The angle: Singer has better control away from GABP
The move: Brady Singer Under 1.5 walks allowed (+133 at Caesars)
This is a very good price for a prop that projects to win at just under 50% today. Brady Singer might be 4-2 to the Over on this prop but all four of those Overs have come at GABP which he is adjusting to in what is his first year with the Cincinnati Reds.
He has made two road starts this season and has allowed just one walk across 11 innings. The Atlanta Braves strike out a lot and have some bad plate discipline numbers which could be the difference tonight on this plus-money prop.
Across Singer’s last four seasons, he is walking just 0.28 batters per inning. This is a better sample than his 2025 numbers, which is where this number for our MLB picks is coming from.
Not intended for use in MA.
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