Let's get the week going as it's good to be back with my pitcher edges and angles. It's a full Tuesday slate with a ton of starters to target and find my favorites.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Tuesday, June 10.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for June 10
Harrison to record the win (+155)
Priester o15.5 outs (+135)
Mikolas u17.5 outs (-110)
Today's SP best bets
Giants vs. Rockies
The angle: It's the best market to fade the Rockies
The move: Kyle Harrison to record the win (+155 at bet365)
Sometimes betting on MLB picks is simple: bet this prop every day vs. the Colorado Rockies. Books think a team can’t be this bad, but the Rockies are the worst team in baseball history.
The San Francisco Giants are -220 on the moneyline and -185 on the F5 ML. The Rockies have one of their worst starters on the mound in Carson Palmquist and his 1.8 WHIP. I have not seen this prop this long since Taijaun Walker, who was projected for just 70 pitches.
Kyle Harrison might not go 18 outs and throw 100 pitches, but he should go 90 pitches in his fourth start of the year and get a longer leash. This is a giant price considering the Rockies starter and needing Harrison to get his 15 outs.
Braves vs. Brewers
The angle: This price is too long for a leash that has a lot of variance
The move: Quinn Priester Over 15.5 outs (+135 at DraftKings)
This is a giant price for a short total with a pitcher who has gone Over this number in three of his last four starts. Milwaukee Brewers SP Quinn Priester has touched triple digits for a pitch count twice this year but can still get to 18 outs on fewer than 90 pitches.
It’s a home start vs. an average Atlanta Braves offense. The Brewers also burned two big middle relievers yesterday with DJ Hall and Grant Anderson throwing 40+ pitches.
There is a risk that Priester goes 15 outs and 85 pitches, but his leash could grow or he could get 16 or more on 90 or fewer. It’s a coin flip at +135 odds.
Jays vs. Cardinals
The angle: Mikolas is not overpowering this Jays lineup
The move: Miles Mikolas Under 17.5 outs (-110 at DraftKings)
Miles Mikolas is not a great pitcher. The St. Louis Cardinals veteran's leash is getting shorter and the only times it seems he gets Over this number is when he's having BABIP luck and guys are swinging early vs. him because he is not a tough pitcher to pick up.
Fifteen points are not a lot for a guy who could have a 30-pitch inning vs. one of the best offenses in baseball over the last 30 days.
Mikolas has averaged 79 pitches across his last 10 starts where he is 6-4 to the Under on this total. Hitting conditions are good across the board today and the Toronto Blue Jays are hot.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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