I went 1-2 SU yesterday and the pickings are slim on a small-slate Thursday with some afternoon games. Remember, hits allowed, pitcher outs, strikeouts, walks allowed, earned runs, and pitcher to record a win are the main pitcher props to target every day. Find pitchers who are hard to price and that’s where you can find the best value.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Thursday, June 12.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for June 12
Misiorowski 3+ walks allowed (+240)- Misiorowski o4.5 strikeouts (+105)
Warren o15.5 outs (-120)
Today's SP best bets
Cardinals vs. Brewers
The angle: Hard-throwing rookie is making his MLB debut
The move: Jacob Misiorowski 3+ walks allowed (+240 at DraftKings)
Jacob Misiorowski is making his MLB debut today at home vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. He is a big-armed righty who touches triple digits with his fastball and has produced 103 Ks over 83 innings across two seasons in Triple-A.
However, he is described as raw, which comes with command issues. Over those same 83 innings, he has given up 44 free passes. At Triple-A this year alone, he has six of 12 starts with 3+ walks allowed.
The nerves are going to be at their highest in this spot, which isn’t going to help the command today. His Over 1.5 walks are set at -135, but there is a walk ladder to be had here with his 4+ walks allowed paying +700 at DraftKings.
Cardinals vs. Brewers
The angle: Only Paul Skenes averages a faster fastball than the Milwaukee rookie
The move: Jacob Misiorowski Over 4.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
This is a true three-outcome pitcher. I’ve already backed the walks and now it’s time to bet on 5+ Ks at plus money (buy to -115). THE BAT is projecting 4.82 Ks today from the rookie making his debut but on just 81 pitches, so there is room for more volume with a conservative pitch count.
Only Paul Skenes has a higher average fastball velocity than the Milwaukee Brewers starter at 97.7 mph. Skenes averages 98 mph. He’s the No.21 prospect in baseball and stands at 6-foot-7.
FanDuel even has a velocity prop on him today for his first pitch with the betting favorite being 99-99.9 mph at +115. He has touched 103 mph this year.
Five innings and five Ks is very possible and there is some ladder room here, too.
Yankees vs. Royals
The angle: A tough previous schedule has pushed his totals and odds to a good spot
The move: Will Warren Over 15.5 outs (-120 at bet365)
Will Warren is going through a rough patch where he has allowed 13 runs over his last three starts. He did get 16 outs in his latest turn, throwing 84 pitches, and in the two starts before that, he was in Colorado and at the Dodgers. Not an easy schedule.
Tonight is a better spot to get those innings back up vs. the light-hitting Kansas City Royals.
Before his game in Colorado, the New York Yankees righty had thrown 101 pitches over 17 outs vs. the Rangers. He can get a long leash and get out of trouble as he has 49 punchouts over his last 33 innings spanning seven starts. Even THE BAT likes this Over.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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