The Kansas City Royals will look to start a new winning streak as they open a three-game series against the Houston Astros tonight at Daikin Par.
Both Houston and Kansas City will be sending strong starters to the mound tonight, and that has me backing the Under in my Royals vs. Astros predictions below.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup and see what bets I’m backing in my free MLB picks for Monday, May 12.
Royals vs Astros prediction
My Royals vs Astros best bet: Under 8 (-105 at Caesars)
After riding a seven-game winning streak, the Kansas City Royals dropped two in a row over the weekend against the Boston Red Sox. Still, Kansas City is looking strong at 24-18, and it’s clear that this team is going to live or die on the strength of its pitching.
The Royals aren’t exactly blowing away their opposition on offense. At just 3.40 runs per game, they rank 27th in the majors in scoring, just ahead of luminaries like the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies. The underlying numbers don’t suggest we should expect matters to improve in this regard either: Kansas City also ranks 27th in OPS (.659) and is only slightly better at 25th in on-base percentage (.300).
Normally, a look at a rookie pitcher who has split time between the bullpen and the starting rotation might be exactly what the Royals' lineup needed to turn things around. But Houston Astros rookie Ryan Gusto has been more than solid in his first year of MLB competition. So far this year, Gusto has made nine appearances, including four starts, and while he’s been better as a reliever, the 26-year-old has held his own as a starter as well.
In four starts, Gusto hasn’t gone deep into games, compiling just 19 innings of work. But he’s pitching to a 3.79 ERA and a 1.263 WHIP when deployed as a starter, striking out just over a batter per inning. And while the Royals don’t strike out much — they have the second-lowest strikeout total in the majors — that may actually be a bad sign for the Kansas City lineup, as making contact is about the only thing they do reasonably well. If Gusto can throw some strikeouts into the mix, it’s hard to see the Royals hitting the ball hard enough to generate runs without regularly stringing together balls in play.
But despite all of their offensive struggles, the Royals have managed to win games, thanks to a pitching staff that is allowing just 3.26 runs per game, second best in the majors. Michael Wacha has been outstanding to start the year, posting a 2.98 ERA and 2.12 FIP over his first eight starts. He’s been even better as of late, allowing just three runs over 19.1 innings in his last three starts, a stretch that includes a win against the Astros in which he tossed six shutout innings against Houston on April 26.
That game ended in a 2-0 win for Kansas City, which is a typical winning score for the Royals. With Wacha on the mound again tonight, I expect this to once again be a prototypical Royals game, in which Wacha keeps them in the contest while the Kansas City lineup scraps for every run it can manage. Regardless of who wins, I don’t expect much scoring, which is why I’m taking the Under tonight.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Royals vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Royals moneyline
Michael Wacha Over 4.5 strikeouts
I think we’re in store for a low-scoring game tonight, but if anyone has the edge, I think it’s Kansas City. We’ve already seen the Royals take two of three from the Astros once this year, and as well as Gusto has pitched in his rookie season so far, I have to give the pitching edge to Wacha. The Royals are a slight underdog in this game, fetching even money on the moneyline, so this is a nice value add to our SGP.
I’ll also take Wacha to collect Over 4.5 strikeouts tonight. Wacha has hit this total in three of his last four starts, including his last outing against the Astros, when he fanned six batters in six innings. A similar performance tonight will get us comfortably Over the total and bring home our parlay.
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Royals vs Astros odds
Royals vs Astros live odds
Royals vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +105 | Houston -116
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-165) | Houston -1.5 (+200)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Royals vs Astros trend
The Royals have played to totals of seven runs or less in each of Wacha’s last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Astros.
How to watch Royals vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Monday, 5-12-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City, Space City Home Network |
| Royals starting pitcher | Michael Wacha (2-4, 2.98 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Ryan Gusto (3-1, 2.93 ERA) |
Royals vs Astros latest injuries
Royals vs Astros weather
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