The Cincinnati Reds (38%) have hammered the baseball lately, barreling up right-handed pitchers at a higher rate than any other team the past three weeks.
I expect their offense to get to Dustin May, which is why I'm backing the road team to keep it close with my Reds vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks for tonight's game in Milwaukee.
Who will win Reds vs Brewers today: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (56%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Cincinnati Reds are in sneaky good form at the dish, and I'm backing them on the RL to 59%.
They rank eighth in xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching the last three weeks, and have barreled up the opposing pitcher at a much higher rate (11.4%) than any other team. Nobody else is within two percent.
I expect them to cause problems for Dustin May, whose xERA sits at 5.85 over the past month. He has also given up barrels at nearly a 10% clip during that span.
That should feed into Cincinnati’s power, allowing them to hang tough in this inner-division clash.
COVERS INTEL: Dustin May's seventh percentile ranking in hard hit rate will only feed into Cincinnati's power surge vs. right-handed pitching.
Reds vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (55%)
This total is a run too low, making the Over a buy to 57%.
Andrew Abbott has not pitched nearly as well on the road this season, sporting a 5.96 xERA while allowing 1.5 homers per nine innings.
The Milwaukee Brewers feature a prolific offense and are lights out at home, making this a difficult spot to envision a quality start from Abbott – especially having just faced the Brew Crew. They’ll be used to his stuff.
May owns an ERA and xERA above 6.0 since the trade to Milwaukee, and now has to deal with a Reds offense hammering the baseball.
Reds vs Brewers home run prediction: Tyler Stephenson (15%)
Tyler Stephenson has provided the Reds with real pop of late, and profiles very well against May’s mix.
Isolating May’s three most-used pitches, which account for well over 80% of what he throws to righties, Stephenson has posted a 14.8% barrel rate and generated hard contact at a 51.9% clip over the last 25 games. He has done real damage.
Stephenson hasn’t seen much of May over the years but is 2-for-4 with an extra-base hit in a limited sample.
- ML/RL bets: 107-93, -8.3 units
- Over/Under bets: 103-91-6, -0.61 units
Reds vs Brewers weather
This game will be played indoors.
Reds vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Reds 38% | Brewers 63%
- Run line: Reds +1.5 (57%) | Brewers -1.5 (44%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (53%) | Under 7.5 (48%)
Reds vs Brewers trend
Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of the last 20 games (+5.15 units, 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Brewers.
How to watch Reds vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
| Reds starting pitcher | Andrew Abbott (6-10, 4.43 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Dustin May (6-9, 4.69 ERA) |
Reds vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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