Red Sox vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Scoring a Struggle for AL East Rivals

Which of these struggling offenses can produce at the plate today? Our MLB picks dive into the latest chapter of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry.

Last Updated: Jun 10, 2023 11:39 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Domingo German MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

One of the biggest rivalries in sports takes place on Saturday night with the New York Yankees hosting the Boston Red Sox. This is the second contest of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium with the Red Sox taking the opener last night as +135 underdogs.

Only 4.5 games separate these rivals in the AL East and neither side can afford to go on a slump with how competitive the division has been. MLB betting lines opened with the Yankees as slim -120 home favorites and the Over/Under at 8.5. Here are my best free Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB picks and predictions for June 10. 

Red Sox vs Yankees odds

Red Sox vs Yankees predictions

Despite 19 hits between these sides last night, they combined for just five runs and we could see another lower-scoring contest between these sides today.

The Red Sox have been solid at the plate for most of the year, but their analytics (20th in the majors in barrel rate and 13th in hard-hit rate) suggested that they were due for regression. That regression seems to be happening this month, with the BoSox plating three or fewer runs in six of their last seven contests and averaging just 2.57 runs per game over that span.

Thankfully the analytics are kinder to today's starter Tanner Houck. Houck has an ugly 5.46 ERA through 11 starts but he's in the Top 25th percentile in barrel rate and his expected ERA is a much more impressive 3.85. It also helps that Houck is facing off against a struggling Yankees lineup that's missing reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge. 

The Yankees have been extremely streaky at the plate. They were 23rd in the majors with a .675 OPS in April, ranked fourth in May (.782), and have an OPS of just .659 so far this month. That has not been helped by Judge's absence, as he leads the majors in OPS by almost 100 points and has been sidelined since last week with a toe injury. 

The Yankees are sending Domingo German to the mound and he's been on fire since the start of May, pitching to a 2.31 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP and an OBA of .164 across his last six starts. They also have the top bullpen in the majors behind him. Play the Under 8.5 between these AL East rivals.

My best bet: Under 8.5 (-105 at bet365)

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Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline analysis

The Yankees have the fourth-best record in the American League at 37-28 but sit a modest third in the AL East standings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are a .500 team but are at the bottom of the division standings. 

The Red Sox did manage to edge the Yankees as +135 road underdogs last night, but the close line today seems a bit strange at first. The Yankees boast the superior record, have owned the head-to-head recently (especially at home where they've gone 37-14 in the last 51 meetings), and have a starting pitcher with a far better ERA. 

However, the analytics actually slightly favor Houck, which suggests that there might not actually be as much of a gap between these starters as it appears at first glance. German's FIP sits at 4.35 this season and his expected ERA is at 4.19 while Houck has a 4.06 FIP with an xERA of 3.85.

The Yankees have also been the less productive team at the plate sitting 15th in the majors in OPS (.724) while the Red Sox are sixth (.759). And that's with Judge powering the lineup for most of the year. 

Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

These teams have been known for their slugging over the last few years, which has usually resulted in some high-scoring games when they face off. However, these sides have been very different this year. 

Newcomers Masataka Yoshida and Justin Turner have been impressive for Boston but they're not quite as dangerous as the departed Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez.

Meanwhile, New York's offense has been extremely reliant on Judge and Anthony Rizzo since everybody else in the lineup is struggling to make contact. Gleyber Torres is batting just .120 this month and the normally reliable D.J. LeMahieu is hitting just .187 over the last 20 games. 

Red Sox vs Yankees game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date: Saturday, June 10, 2023
First pitch: 7:35 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers

Tanner Houck (3-5, 5.46 ERA): Houck split his time between the rotation and bullpen last year pitching to a 3.15 ERA with a 3.30 FIP and a 1.18 WHIP across 60 innings. While German has thrived since the start of May, Houck has struggled with a 6.25 ERA in his last six starts. That said, his FIP (4.03) and OBA (.246) over that span haven't been nearly as bad.

Domingo German (3-3, 3.69 ERA): The veteran had a 3.61 ERA with a 1.16 ERA in 14 starts last year despite not making his season debut until July due to a shoulder injury. He had a few rocky starts at the beginning of this season but has played much better lately. He's fresh off an outing against L.A. where he limited the high-scoring Dodgers to four hits and one run in 6 2/3 innings.

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Trend to know

The Under is 6-2 in New York's last eight games at home while going 10-4 in Boston's previous 14 contests on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees


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