MLB Picks

Cedric Mullins is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Cedric Mullins will have an advantage today.. Cedric Mullins is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals only has 1 same-handed RP.. Bats such as Cedric Mullins with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Michael McGreevy who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Crow-Armstrong smacked 31 bombs last season, and he's 7-for-9 lifetime against Miles Mikolas with five home runs. He'll go deep today. 

A common theme for me is to find whenever Miles Mikolas is pitching and fade him. The Cubs' offense isn't going to be the problem this season, and I expect Cade Horton to receive plenty of run support. 

Springs allowed 28 home runs last season, fourth-most in all of baseball. He throws a healthy dose of fastballs, which is a pitch Springer handled extremely well last season, sporting a 1.076 OPS against the pitch with a team-high 14 home runs. He hit them hard too, with a .746 xSLG and a hard-hit rate of 55%. 

Clement was one of the most dangerous hitters against lefties last season, posting a team-high .900 OPS with 26 extra-base hits. 

Langford has never faced Nola, but there’s reason to suggest he has some success. He doesn’t have an overly high chase rate, which Nola is reliant on. In addition to that, he ranked among the best Rangers in hard-hit rate against the fastball and knuckle curveball, the two pitches the righty throws the most. 

deGrom averaged just over seven strikeouts last season with a 9.5 K rate per nine innings. There’s a strong precedent for him to quiet the Philly star bats, too. Kyle Schwarber is 1-for-17 with eight Ks, and Bryce Harper has 17 punchouts in 44 ABs. 

Cowser has clubbed 40 homers across the last two seasons, and he had 16 last year in only 92 games. The youngster is 4-for-10 lifetime against Taj Bradley with a long ball. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kyle Bradish to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kyle Bradish has utilized his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 55.3% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.. Kyle Bradish has had some very good luck with his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up a 13.22 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.97 — a 3.25 K/9 difference.

Throwing 94 adjusted pitches per game per started since the start of last season on average, David Peterson places in the 88th percentile.. Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 26.3% underlying K%.. The #9 venue in the majors for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.. Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to drop to the 2nd-lowest level of the day at 45°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball.. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Juan Soto will have an advantage today.. Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Juan Soto will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

There isn't much separating these lineups which both need young talent to step up. Cincinnati has a few more holes but Boston lacks juice in the middle of the order. This will come down to pitching and Boston has the edge. Both starters had similar numbers last year with Sonny Gray logging a 4.28 ERA and Brady Singer posting an xERA of 4.27. That said, Gray's underlying metrics were very impressive with his .332 BABIP suggesting he was very unlucky. Among all qualifying starters, Gray ranked sixth in SIERA (3.29), 12th in strikeout rate (26.7%), and fifth in walk rate (5%). With the BoSox also boasting the better bullpen, back them on the ML. 

Wilyer Abreu mashed 22 homers in just 115 games last year, with 21 of those dingers against righties like Singer. Singer's best pitches are breaking balls (slider and sweeper) which he threw 39.5% of the time last year. His sinker made up 40.6% of his arsenal but he got knocked around on that pitch, with opponents slugging .469. Abreu had an impressive .310 BA against sinkers while slugging .556 against breaking balls. With Abreu's ability to crush Singer's offerings at a home-run friendly park, getting his HR prop at +420 is a bargain.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 8th-best ballpark in the majors for RHB home runs.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to higher offensive output.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Andrew Benintendi is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. American Family Field profiles as the #8 stadium in the game for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all stadiums, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in MLB.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 17° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Reid Detmers throws from, Isaac Paredes will have an edge today.. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (48% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Jorge Soler is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 17° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest among all the teams today.

Aaron Judge should probably always be the home run pick in a Yankee game, but he's been even better in his hometown park. Friday's blast was his fourth in five games in San Francisco, and his 1.455 OPS at Oracle Park is fifth highest in any stadium—and Coors Field is one of the four where he's hit better.

He's also a streaky home-run hitter. Over the last two seasons, 39 of his 111 home runs have come after he's already homered within the last day. He went deep on Friday.

New York pitchers have struck out 19 in 18 shutout innings and allowed one extra-base hit. The Giants, meanwhile, are already showing signs of frustration. Losing pitcher Robbie Ray seemed to take issue with former college coach Tony Vitello's rah-rah clubhouse speeches after yesterday's game.

Bobby Witt Jr. was outstanding in the World Baseball Classic, and was the only Royals hitter to show up Friday night as he collected a pair of singles.

He could’ve done more, given he posted a 94.3 exit velocity and a .856 xBA on the three pitches he put into play. That includes a double-play grounder in the first with a .660 xBA and 103.9 exit velo.

Reynaldo Lopez saw a massive dip in FB velocity in spring training, averaging just 89.2 mph in his last outing. 

Witt will punish that lack of velocity with an extra-base hit.

 

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Reynaldo Lopez in the 81st percentile among all starters in MLB.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 10th-best field in the game for strikeouts.. Low humidity has a small but significant link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the least humidity of all games today at 20%.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hurlers.. Reynaldo Lopez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his metrics across the board.

When assessing his home run talent, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all stadiums, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the most favorable for hitting on the slate.

Teoscar Hernandez has been quiet to start the year. That could change in game three, given that he’s had success against Rodriguez in the past, batting 10-for-26 with three home runs and a 1.293 OPS.

The outfielder is posting strong underlying numbers early (.348 xBA and a 74th percentile bat speed). He’s mashed lefties in his career (136 wRC+), which will play against Rodriguez, who surrendered 1.57 HR/9 to right-handed bats in 2025.

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Arizona Diamondbacks could use a strong outing from Eduardo Rodriguez on Saturday. 

The veteran southpaw isn’t known for his punchout prowess, but he’s had success in that department against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Across a large sample size of 131 at-bats against LA’s projected hitters, he’s racked up a respectable 26% K rate.

A year ago, he tossed 4+ strikeouts in 20 of his 29 starts, yet there is plus money available on him doing so on Saturday.

He was in fine form during the World Baseball Classic, throwing four scoreless against Team USA, and therefore could have a fine start to the season.

 

Bryan Woo was one of Seattle's better pitchers last year, and he comes into this one with two solid spring training outings under his belt. I'm banking on pitching being the difference in this game. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryan Woo to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.. Because of his large platoon split, Bryan Woo encounters a tough challenge going up against 7 batters in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in today's outing.. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bryan Woo has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 72.8% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.. Considering the 0.56 deviation between Bryan Woo's 9.55 K/9 and his 8.99 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and ought to perform worse going forward.