The New York Yankees broke their season-long losing streak against hated rival Boston Red Sox yesterday, and now can win the series if they can come away with a victory tonight on Sunday Night Baseball.
Yesterday's win came at a cost, however, as New York lost another outfielder, further thinning an already-depleted lineup. Despite being forced to trot out a number of less-than-household names, MLB betting odds have the Yankees as home favorites tonight.
Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Yankees, with first pitch set for 7:08 p.m. ET.
Red Sox vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Sunday, July 18, 2021
• Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires Sportsbook opened New York a slim -110 favorite and spent some time at -118 on the way to Pinstripes -130, where the moneyline sits at 4:15 p.m. ET for the Sunday night game. The Red Sox are taking 66 percent of moneyline tickets and the Yankees 57 percent of moneyline dollars. "We saw some respected money come in on the Yankees this morning," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total is steady at 9.5, with the Over taking 59 percent of tickets/61 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRed Sox vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Martin Perez (7-5, 4.04 ERA): Going deep into games has been a struggle for Perez, as he's finished six innings in just three of his 18 starts this season — and only once since late May. The veteran lefty does not miss many bats, sitting in the 3rd percentile in whiff rate, and opponents are hitting .286 or better off four of his five pitches. The one redeeming factor for Perez is that he has performed much better on the road, where he's 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA.
Jameson Taillon (4-4, 4.90 ERA): Taillon is currently riding his most consistent stretch of the season, posting three quality starters in his last four outings — and falling one out short of making it four of five. His most recent start saw him hold Houston to two runs on three hits over six innings, as he continues to lean on his fastball, which he throws nearly half of the time to a .214 opponent batting average.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts SS (Day-to-Day), Marwin Gonzalez 2B (Out), Ryan Brasier RP (Out).
Yankees: Aaron Judge OF (Out), Gio Urshela 3B (Out), Luke Voit 1B (Out), Kyle Higashioka C (Out), Miguel Andujar OF (Out), Clint Frazier OF (Out), Aaron Hicks OF (Out), Tim Locastro OF (Out), Jonathan Loaisiga RP (Out), Darren O'Day RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Yankees' last six overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
Moneyline pick
The Yankees got their first win against the Red Sox this season yesterday, which is a cause for optimism, but that was a very whacky game that went fortunately in New York's favor.
First, heavy rains capped this game at six innings — a huge help for the Yanks as they have given up 15 runs in the seventh inning or later in eight games against Boston this season. Second, the Yankees didn't have a hit until the fifth inning and scored two of their runs on homers that can only be described as "Yankee Stadium cheapies." And third, ace Gerrit Cole was on the mound yesterday... and Jameson Taillon is no Cole, despite his recent strong stretch.
The reality is that the Yankees got lucky in yesterday's game and won't have a rain-shortened game to save them from the fact that they're a depleted lineup against a superior team that is 7-1 and outscored them 41-20 head-to-head this season.
New York, which is the eighth-lowest scoring team in the MLB, is also woefully thin on the roster, with injuries leading to four everyday players out... and the team having to trot out their seventh and eighth outfielders on the depth chart. Boston, on the other hand, only has one major concern — star SS Xander Bogaerts, who is day-to-day after tweaking his wrist Friday and sitting yesterday — but otherwise has a full lineup.
The Red Sox may be at a slight disadvantage with the starters but their bullpen has been much more reliable than New York as of late, as Boston has a 3.39 bullpen ERA since June 1, compared to the Yanks' 4.84 ERA.
Boston is the better team, the healthier team, and is available at even money? Sign me up.
PREDICTION: Boston (+100)
Over/Under pick
We mentioned above that the Yankees don't score much at the best of times — they average 4.1 runs per game — and they're currently without Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela, and Luke Voit, three of their top hitters.
Even though Martin Perez is not a hard-throwing strikeout pitcher — seemingly the Yanks' kryptonite — he's still very solid on the road and it's hard to see him getting lit up by the likes of Brett Gardner, Chris Gittens, Tyler Wade, and Greg Allen... aka New York's 6-9 hitters yesterday.
With New York's offense lacking punch, the onus will fall on Boston to get this total past the 9.5-run threshold. But despite being a Top-5 offense this year, the BoSox have only topped five runs twice in their last 11 games (3-7-1 O/U in that stretch).
Taillon has been pitching well enough that we don't see Boston hanging a terribly crooked number today, so we're going against the money and taking the Under tonight.
PREDICTION: Under 9.5 (-110)
Red Sox vs Yankees betting card
- Boston (+100)
- Under 9.5 (-110)
Picks made on 7/18/2021 at 12:12 p.m. ET
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