Padres vs Nationals Picks and Predictions: San Diego Enters the Thunderdome

Max Scherzer was pummeled in San Diego in his previous start but he's out for revenge today at home, where he's much better. Betting against an angry Mad Max is not something we like to do — so you can guess where our MLB picks are leaning today.

Jul 18, 2021 • 11:01 ET • 5 min read
Max Scherzer Washington Nationals MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres will take on the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. at roughly 3:11 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 18.

Why the odd (and not exact) start time? Well, these teams have to finish up last night’s suspended game at 1:05 p.m. ET — and then they’ll start this one “25-45 minutes later.”

The Nationals will (barring a comeback in the resumed contest) be trying to avoid a sweep in Sunday's regular game and MLB betting odds have this contest as a -110 pick'em.

Will Washington come away with the home win over San Diego? Keep reading our Padres vs. Nationals picks and predictions to find out.

Padres vs Nationals game info

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
Date: Sunday, July 18, 2021
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Network, TBS, MASN

Padres vs Nationals odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

This contest, which starts later than originally scheduled due to Saturday night's delayed game resuming today, opened a -110 pick 'em at PointsBet USA. The Padres twice moved to -115, but the moneyline is back at -110 as of 12:15 p.m. ET. "Fifty-eight percent of bets on San Diego, while 70 percent of money is on Washington," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said. The total is fairly stable at 8, with 56 percent of bets/77 percent of dollars on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Padres vs Nationals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Joe Musgrove (5-7, 2.93 ERA): Musgrove was unhittable to start the year for the Padres, but he has come back down to earth a bit since. The righty has become a bit unpredictable over the last few weeks, as he gave up one earned run in 4 1-3 innings of work against the Colorado Rockies on July 10 but he had allowed five earned runs in back-to-back starts before that. One thing that’s clear about Musgrove, however, is that the 28-year-old isn’t likely to work deep into the game.

Max Scherzer (7-4, 2.66 ERA): In Scherzer’s last start before the All-Star break, Washington's stud gave up seven earned runs in 3 2-3 innings of work against these same Padres. Scherzer gave up two homers in that game, and he also gave up five hits. It was an uncharacteristically awful outing for Scherzer, who will now look to bounce back here. It’s certainly worth noting that the 36-year-old has a 1.90 ERA in eight starts at home this season.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Padres: Keone Kela RP (Out), Austin Nola C (Out).
Nationals: Kyle Schwarber OF (Out), Alex Avila C (Out), Yan Gomes C (Out), Starlin Castro 2B (Out), Will Harris RP (Out), Tanner Rainey RP (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Nationals are 8-1 in their last nine home games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Nationals.

Moneyline pick

Scherzer was absolutely miserable in his last outing against this Padres team, as he gave up homers to both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Daniel Camarena — a relief pitcher who actually hit a grand slam off of Mad Max.

Those mistakes were killers for the Nationals in that game, with the team ultimately blowing an 8-0 lead and losing 9-8. Scherzer, however, is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he should be able to rebound in this one.

While Scherzer has definitely lost a little something as he has gotten older, the righty is still one of the true aces in this league. The 36-year-old has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff you’ll see out of anyone and he also happens to be completely menacing when pitching at Nationals Park.

On the year, the righty has allowed only 10 earned runs over 47 1-3 innings pitched at home, and he’ll definitely look to avoid making the same mistakes as he made against this lineup last time. Giving up a homer to Tatis is understandable — he’s a stud — but giving one up to a reliever is unacceptable.

As for the offense, Josh Bell, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner all have what it takes to make Musgrove crazy in this one. Musgrove hasn’t been very reliable for the Padres as of late, and this lineup is a tough matchup for him.

PREDICTION: Nationals (-110) 

Over/Under pick

Prior to the first two games in this series going Over the total, the Padres had seen three consecutive games hit the Under.

And with these teams combining to score 32 runs in the series opener (24 from the Friars) and then 12 so far in last night’s suspended game, it’s probably safe to assume that these bats might cool down a bit.

Sure, Musgrove is beatable right now, but three or four runs against the righty would put the Nationals in a great position to win this game. Scherzer is a threat to shut down his opponent whenever his cleats are on the rubber, and he’ll be eager to get out there and put his last start behind him.

PREDICTION: Under 8.0 (-110)

Padres vs Nationals betting card

  • Nationals ML (-110)
  • Under 8.0 (-110)

Picks made on 7/18/2021 at 10:22 a.m. ET

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