Two veteran lefties will close out the interleague series between the Atlanta Braves and the visiting Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday afternoon. The 54-38 Rays took the opener in extra innings while the third-place Braves laid the hammer down yesterday and walked away with a 9-0 shutout.
The Braves have had no problem scoring in the series without Ronald Acuna as Atlanta has put up 15 runs in the two games. One more win will get the home team back to the .500 mark, although MLB betting odds have the Braves as a slight -105 underdog with the total set at a flat 9.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Rays vs. Braves on Sunday, July 18 with first pitch at 1:20 p.m ET.
Rays vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Sunday, July 18, 2021
• Time: 1:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Southeast
Rays vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThis matchup hit PointsBet USA's odds board as a -110 pick 'em Saturday evening, saw Tampa Bay go to -115 a couple of times and is at Atlanta -115 as of 12:15 p.m. ET today. "It's two-way here, with 51 percent of bets on Atlanta and 62 percent of money on Tampa Bay," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said. The total opened at 9 (Under -115) and saw price adjustments to Under -120 and the flat -110 a couple of times, and it's now at Under -115 again, with 55 percent of bets/67 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRays vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Rich Hill (6-4, 3.74 ERA): The 41-year-old pitcher is making his first start in the second half after compiling some solid numbers in the first 82 games of the season. However, Dick Mountain saw his ERA climb over his last six outings, where he recorded zero quality starts, picked up just one win, and allowed 17 runs in 29 1-3 innings (5.21 ERA). His spin rate and velocity have also been tumbling downwards.
Drew Smyly (7-3, 4.48 ERA): Smyly gave us a mixed bag in the first half. He gave up nine hits and three walks over five innings to the Pirates in his last start but was riding a little heater before that mess, as the lefty hadn’t allowed more than two runs and lowered his ERA from 5.98 to 4.42 in the five starts prior. Smyly has recorded 18 outs just five times in 15 starts this year, so the Atlanta bullpen will be a big factor in the finale.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Rays: Mike Brosseau 2B (Out), Manuel Margot OF (Out), Nick Anderson RP (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna OF (Out), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out), Alex Jackson C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in Hills' last four starts as a favorite and the Over is 6-0 in Smyly’s last six starts as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Braves.
Moneyline pick
The Rays lost by nine runs or more for the third time in the last 30 days yesterday as the Acuna-less Braves had no problem getting the offense going for a second straight night. The Braves are 22 for 73 (.301) in the series with five home runs and 41 total bases. Now they get to face a pitcher in Rich Hill who could be wearing down at 41 and struggling with velocity and spin rate dips.
Hill hadn’t pitched more than 60 innings since 2018 and sits at 91 IP heading into Sunday’s matinee. He’s allowed half of his 14 total home runs over his last six starts, batters are slugging 100 points higher against Hill on the road this year, and the Rays are just 10-8 SU in Hill’s starts this season.
Atlanta doesn’t hit lefties particularly well but they do it better than the Rays. Tampa has the fourth-lowest OPS against LHP in baseball, as the Rays have the lowest line-drive rate against LHP in the league and an 8.9 percent HR/FB rate, which ranks 31st. They don’t hit lefties hard and Drew Smyly is 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA across four day games this year.
We feel if the Rays are going to win this, it is going to be a high-scoring affair as the Atlanta offense is rolling and looking to show they can win without Acuna. We’d prefer the first five ML here but have no problems taking the Braves in a full game with their bullpen rested.
PREDICTION: Atlanta (-105)
Over/Under pick
The Braves hit the Over all by themselves after hanging nine runs on the defending AL champs a day ago. Freddie Freeman has come out of the break on fire, as he is 6 for 8 in the series with a pair of long balls and 12 total bases. He hits RHP better but still owns a .265/.338/.471 slash line against lefty starters.
Rich Hill doesn’t scare us for the Over and neither does Drew Smyly. The Atlanta lefty has given up 16 home runs this year, which is a Top-20 mark in the league. He has toned them down of late, but the threat is always there.
The bullpens could play a major role in this game as neither starting pitcher tends to go late into games. Over the last 30 days, the Atlanta bullpen is getting hit at a .257 rate, much higher than the league average, while Tampa’s bullpen has posted a 4.15 ERA over the last 30 days and is giving up hard contact at 34 percent — which is a Top-10 rate.
Tampa will want to get on the board early after yesterday’s shutout — the fourth time the Rays have been blanked this year. They have scored one, nine, and seven runs in games following a shutout.
The total opened at Over 9 +102 but has been swung up to -105, and we agree with that as and we like the runs to keep coming on Sunday.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (-105)
Rays vs Braves betting card
- Atlanta ML (-105)
- Over 9 (-105)
Picks made on 7/18/2021 at 6:44 a.m. ET
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