It's another week, and it's time to look at home runs differently after a severe cold snap. I'm targeting the best bats in the best form all week, as trying to fade starters and bullpens has not been a winning strategy early in the season. It's time to get another perspective while also using Covers' MLB player prop projections.
Jake Burger has homered in four straight series and gets a struggling Tatsuya Imai, whose HR/FB rate is one of the worst in baseball. Add that to a pair of ace hitters in good matchups, and we've got a home run stew brewing.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Monday, May 25.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Julio Rodriguez |
+364 |
 Yandy Diaz |
+640 |
 Jake Burger |
+494 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +18229 |
Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+364)
This one checks a lot of boxes and is a great way to start the week. Julio Rodríguez is in great form with the 18th-best slugging mark in baseball over the last week and the 15th-best BlastContact rate. He went deep yesterday at Kauffman Stadium and has multiple hits in three of his last four games.
He also gets the best hitting environment on the slate in Sacramento, with double-digit winds blowing out to center at 13 mph.
He’ll get a crack at Aaron Civale, who has allowed five home runs over his last two starts. J-Rod has also done damage against the Athletics starter in a solid sample, going 7-for-15 with a homer across 15 at-bats.
The +EV dinger carries a fair price around +300. It’s a great number for a late-night Memorial Day bomb.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV
Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+640)
There is only one bat with a better slugging percentage over the last seven days than Yandy Diaz, who also ranks 22nd in BlastContact% over that stretch.
He looks fine after missing a game following a pitch off the hand last Thursday and delivered a two-hit day yesterday, including a double, vs. the Yankees. He has gone deep three times over his last seven games with four doubles and just two strikeouts against three walks.
There is a slight chance of rain in Baltimore, but conditions still feature 75-degree temperatures and light winds blowing out. A strong angle here is that Diaz just saw Kyle Bradish in his last start and tagged him for a home run and a double in three plate appearances. Both balls were crushed, with the homer leaving the bat at 111.3 mph and the double at 113.7 mph. That familiarity edge is firmly in Diaz’s favor today.
Diaz has also seen Bradish 22 times in his career and is hitting .455 off him overall. It’s one of the hottest bats in baseball in a matchup he has already handled well, at a strong price point.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Rays.TV
Home run pick: Jake Burger (+494)
Jake Burger is swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball and gets a strong matchup vs. a struggling starter in Tatsuya Imai and a Houston Astros bullpen that has allowed the most home runs in baseball, with 37 across 217 innings of work.
Burger ranks 20th in slugging over the last two weeks while also posting one of the best BlastContact rates in baseball over that same span. He draws an indoor setting vs. Imai, who is still adjusting to North American baseball, carries one of the worst HR/FB rates among MLB starters, and has already allowed four home runs in just over 17 innings.
Imai has shown little ability to work deep into games, and the bullpen behind him offers limited relief, especially if Houston is forced into its secondary arms.
Burger has homered in four straight series and just saw the Astros 10 days ago, where he collected seven total bases in 11 at-bats, giving him a familiarity edge. I have this fair price around +400, giving clear room on this home run prop.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, RSN
- HR picks: 13-89, -21.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Julio Rodriguez |
Bet Now +18229 |
| Yandy Diaz |
|
| Jake Burger |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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