This miracle run to the semifinals for Team Italy is what makes the World Baseball Classic so great.
But if the Italians want the espresso shots to keep flowing, they’ll have to beat some of baseball’s best, as they take on Ronald Acuna Jr. and Venezuela tonight.
My Venezuela vs. Italy predictions and World Baseball Classic best bets break down why this will be the last cup brewed for the Italians.
Venezuela vs Italy prediction
Venezuela vs Italy best bet: Venezuela -1.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
What made Venezuela's 8-5 win over Japan impressive was that Ronald Acuna & Co. got to some of the best pitchers in the world, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Nola was great in his start against Mexico, but this Venezuela lineup is deeper with Maikel Franco and the Contreras Bros. aiding Acuna. The Italian relievers have been shaky behind their starters, too.
The Venezuelan bullpen quartet of Jose Butto, Andrew Machado, Angel Zerpa, and Daniel Palencia haven't allowed a run in 15 2/3 innings while striking out 17.
The Italian bats have taken them far, but no more espresso after today.
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Venezuela vs Italy same-game parlay (SGP)
Venezuela -1.5
Under 10
Ronald Acuna Jr. home run
This semifinal is a matchup of two of the most productive offenses in the World Baseball Classic, which is why we’re getting a total of 10. But that number is inflated.
Nola didn’t allow a run in four innings against Mexico, and while he’s coming off a tough year with the Phillies, he’s still regarded as one of the better pitchers in the National League.
Keider Montero is just 25 years old but had a bit of a breakout with the Tigers in the postseason, allowing just two hits and no runs in 8 1/3 innings over five appearances.
Ronald Acuna Jr. star player prop
Ronald Acuna Jr. best bet: 1+ home runs (+340 at DraftKings)
If you’re looking for a home run bet, the last leg of our same-game parlay is also worth a single wager. Acuna has great career numbers vs. Nola with a 1.024 OPS with four home runs in 52 career at-bats against the Phillies starter.
Venezuela vs Italy opening odds
- Moneyline: Venezuela -185 | Italy +150
- Run line: Venezuela -1.5 (-120) | Italy +1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 10 | Under 10
How to watch Venezuela vs Italy and game info
| Location | LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date | Monday, March 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Venezuela starting pitcher | Keider Montero |
| Italy starting pitcher | Aaron Nola |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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