Red Sox vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Toronto Celebrates Playoff Berth With Home Win

Well, it wasn't how they imagined it, but Toronto landed in the playoffs last night thanks to the team it plays today. Our MLB betting picks takes a look at this AL East matchup and breaks down the opportunity for Manoah's big night.

Last Updated: Sep 30, 2022 11:35 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Alek Manoah Toronto Blue Jays MLB
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The Toronto Blue Jays punched their ticket to the postseason without playing a game yesterday. Now they’ll set their sights on the top American League Wild Card spot when they open their penultimate series of the season against the Boston Red Sox.

Toronto will put its best foot forward to open this three-game set by handing the ball to ace and ultimate competitor in Alek Manoah.

So, it should come as no surprise that my best bet involves the Jays’ fiery right-hander. Find out what it is in tonight’s MLB betting picks and predictions for this AL East battle between the Red Sox and Blue Jays.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays best odds

Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks and predictions

Toronto had to watch the New York Yankees celebrate winning the American League East division crown on its home field last series. And you know who will use that for motivation? Alek Manoah.

After going through a bit of a mid-summer slump which had some people questioning his durability (he had never pitched this many innings in a season before), Manoah now seems to be getting stronger as the season goes along — pitching his best when the Blue Jays need him the most.

The right-hander has allowed just six earned runs over his last seven starts, good for a 1.13 ERA while limiting opponents to a .172 batting average. He’s also thrown at least six innings in all seven of those starts. So much for durability issues. 

Manoah has also enjoyed this matchup with the Red Sox. He’s already made three starts against Boston this season and has given up just three earned runs on 16 hits while striking out 20 batters over 20 innings of work. 

The Red Sox spent the week beating up on the Baltimore Orioles, but they are just 2-13 in their last 15 games against the Top 3 teams in the AL East (Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays), scoring just 3.8 runs per game. 

And while Nick Pivetta has been perfectly mediocre, he’s just not at Manoah’s level. Worse than that, he’ll eventually hand the ball to a Boston bullpen that has been god awful in the second half of the season. Not only is their 5.51 ERA post-All-Star break the worst in baseball, it’s the worst by nearly a half run. 

Manoah will be motivated to get his team and Jays fans a win after clinching their postseason berth on an off day. Expect him to pitch well and deep into this game, racking up some punchouts and leading Toronto to a win in the process. 

My best bet: Manoah to record 6+ strikeouts and Blue Jays to win (+145 at FanDuel)

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Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as approximately -200 home favorites. but it’s the Red Sox who have seen the early money, pushing the line to Toronto -185.

Sure, the Red Sox had fun beating up on the Orioles earlier this week. But that O’s team is still going through some growing pains and it was in front of the home fans at Fenway Park.

The Jays on the other hand have their sights set on the top AL Wild Card spot — which means playing the Wild Card round at home — so they will be focused and motivated. 

Meanwhile, Boston has struggled against winning teams this season, sporting a 42-58 record when facing teams above .500. And no opponent has been tougher on it than the Blue Jays.

Toronto is 13-3 vs. Boston this season, outscoring it 100-52.

Even though it’s a little juicy, there is some value on the Jays at this number. Maybe even consider them on the run line. 

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

The total hit the board at 8.5 and has been bet down to 8 as of Friday morning. That’s not super surprising with Manoah on the mound.

The Jays' right-hander is one of the best starters in the AL and is capable of shutting down anyone, making him a great Under bet this season. Manoah has seen an average of 6.7 runs scored per game in his starts this season with the Under going 20-10.

We already broke down why Manoah can be successful in this game. So, if you like the Over you are probably banking on the Jays to do the heavy lifting. Which they can certainly do, particularly against a putrid Boston bullpen. 

But that means I would probably stay away from the total in this one.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays trend to know

The Red Sox are 0-8 in their last eight games when facing a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays

Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date: Friday, September 30, 2022
First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: NESN, Sportsnet

Starting pitchers

Nick Pivetta (10-11, 4.48 ERA): Pivetta has been a reliable starter for the Red Sox this season with a 4.32 FIP and averaging 5.5 innings per start. But the right-hander is in a slump pitching to a 6.46 ERA and surrendering a .998 OPS over his last three outings.

Alek Manoah (15-7, 2.31 ERA): Manoah has been one of the best starters in the AL all season and seems to be peaking at the right time. The right-hander has recorded a quality start in each of his last seven outings. 

Red Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays weather

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