The Boston Red Sox will try to build on winning two of three against the Yankees over the weekend as they return home to host the Tampa Bay Rays for the opener of a three-game series on Monday night.
Boston has been crushing the ball recently, and in the friendly confines of Fenway Park, I’m taking the Over in my Rays vs. Red Sox predictions.
Let’s break down the first game of this series between AL East rivals in my free MLB picks for Monday, June 9.
Rays vs Red Sox prediction
My Rays vs Red Sox best bet: Over 8.5 (-110 at Caesars)
The Boston Red Sox may be struggling at 32-35, but it’s certainly not the fault of their lineup. Boston is averaging 4.93 runs per game, good for fifth in the majors, and that number has only been increasing over the past week.
In their last four games, the Red Sox have gone for double-digit runs three times, including twice in their series win against the Yankees in New York over the weekend. Sure, they also allowed at least seven runs in each of those games, but they still managed to win three of four in that stretch.
The Tampa Bay Rays have been much better at keeping their opponents in check, allowing only 3.68 runs per game. In eight of their last 10 games overall, Tampa Bay has held opponents to three runs or fewer, which has helped cover for some occasional offensive struggles.
If there’s one starter who hasn’t been a part of this outstanding effort, however, it’s Shane Baz, who takes the mound for Tampa Bay tonight. In 12 starts, Baz has compiled a 4.96 ERA, and his 5.01 FIP doesn’t promise much in the way of regression to the mean. Baz has struggled to keep batters off the base with a 1.362 WHIP, but has mostly been hurt by the longball, as he’s allowed 13 homers in 65 1/3 innings of work.
Baz was effective in one early-season start against the Red Sox, but hasn’t been the same pitcher since the start of May, posting a 7.00 ERA in his last seven starts. This is a bad time for him to run into a Boston lineup that’s in a groove in the best ballpark for run production this side of Coors Field.
The Rays have produced plenty of runs on offense this year, too, averaging 4.42 per game. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has been solid this year (2-1, 3.91 ERA), but has struggled to go deep into games, lasting less than five innings in five of his last six starts. Boston has a strong bullpen, but not to the extent that they want relievers throwing 4+ innings against a solid lineup.
That’s all to say that Tampa Bay should put up a reasonable offensive effort tonight to go along with what I expect will be another big day for the Red Sox hitters. Add up the numbers, and there’s a clear bet here: I’m taking the Over.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Rays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Red Sox moneyline
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
I’m expecting the Boston offense to have a big night tonight, and that will be the basis of my SGP. Along with taking the Over, I’m also taking the Red Sox to win outright. Not only does Boston have a favorable pitching matchup — especially going up against a struggling Baz — but playing at home against a Rays lineup that hasn’t lit the world on fire as of late makes me confident that the Red Sox have the edge.
To round out the SGP, let’s take Rafael Devers to go Over 1.5 total bases. Devers had an extra base hit in each of his three games against the Yankees this weekend and is riding a seven-game hitting streak. In five of those games, Devers has compiled 2+ total bases as well. And while Devers himself doesn’t have dramatic platoon splits, his .929 OPS against righties definitely plays.
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Rays vs Red Sox odds
Rays vs Red Sox live odds
Rays vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +105 | Boston -125
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-190) | Boston -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Rays vs Red Sox trend
The Over is 4-0 in Boston's last four games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Rays vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Monday, 6-9-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Sun, NESN |
| Rays starting pitcher | Shane Baz (5-3, 4.96 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (2-1, 3.91 ERA) |
Rays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Rays vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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