Tampa Bay @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 7th-lowest temperature of all games today at 58°. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for pitchers. Sporting a 3.65 K/BB rate this year, Jarren Duran has displayed bad plate discipline, placing in the 24th percentile.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 7th-lowest temperature of all games today at 58°. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for pitchers. Brayan Bello will have the handedness advantage against Yandy Diaz in today's matchup... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. Typically, batters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brayan Bello.

The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Taylor Walls has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.231) implies that Taylor Walls has had some very poor luck this year with his .210 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Jonathan Aranda will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The #4 field in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Kristian Campbell has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Kristian Campbell will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the last two weeks, Kristian Campbell's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph recently.

The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Wilyer Abreu's launch angle this year (24.2°) is a considerable increase over his 19° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jake Mangum has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences today.

The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Marcelo Mayer will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Marcelo Mayer will hold that advantage in today's game. A consistent launch angle is a measure of good hitting, and Marcelo Mayer has been very consistent with his recently, posting a 30.5° launch angle standard deviation in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Brandon Lowe will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Kameron Misner will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today. Kameron Misner has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Abraham Toro will hold that advantage today.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge today. Rafael Devers has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The #4 field in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Danny Jansen tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Compared to his seasonal average of 23.6°, Danny Jansen has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 44.2° angle in the past 14 days. By putting up a 1.67 K/BB rate this year, Danny Jansen has displayed favorable plate discipline, placing in the 79th percentile.

The #4 field in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage today. By putting up a .327 BABIP since the start of last season, Connor Wong is ranked in the 89th percentile.

Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. The #4 field in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Carlos Narvaez has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's game. Carlos Narvaez has compiled a .345 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 76th percentile.

Trevor Story's BABIP skill is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. The #4 field in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Trevor Story hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Trevor Story will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. The #4 field in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. Junior Caminero has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the last 7 days.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP talent is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #4 field in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today. Ceddanne Rafaela's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 16.5% to 22.1%.

The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. David Hamilton will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz in today's matchup. David Hamilton has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and David Hamilton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.