Rays vs Orioles Picks and Predictions: Baltimore Improves to Above .500 with Matinee Win

The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles will wrap up a four-game set this afternoon that has been dominated by the O's, who won the first two games and lost in extra innings last night. 

With the Baltimore bullpen taxed and overused in the series, will starter Jordan Lyles have an especially long leash today? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Rays vs. Orioles. 

Rays vs Orioles odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Baltimore opened as slight -115 favorites after closing as -125 favorites last night and has moved slightly to -120 this afternoon. The total opened at 9.0 and might touch 9.5. This is the highest total of the four-game set. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Rays vs Orioles predictions

• Prediction: Orioles ML (-115)
• Prediction: F5 Over 4.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Lyles Over 5.5 hits allowed (-120)

Picks made on 7/28/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Rays vs Orioles game info

• Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
• Date: Thursday, July 28, 2022
• First pitch: 12:35 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Florida, MASN

Rays vs Orioles betting preview

Starting pitchers

Ryan Yarbrough (0-5, 5.61 ERA): Yarbrough will get the ball for the matinee today and was confirmed early on Thursday. He will be working on four days of rest compared to the regular five days, but didn’t start in his last appearance and threw 75 pitches. The lefty has seen the Orioles twice this season including a start back on July 16. Over those two games, he has totaled 9 1-3 innings, 11 hits, and three earned runs while putting up an 8/0 K/BB ratio. The Rays have lost nine of the 10 games he’s started. He’s a flyball pitcher who walks batters and allows home runs. 

Jordan Lyles (6-8, 4.79 ERA): Lyles allows a lot of baserunners via walks and hits and got roughed up by the Rays two starts ago, where he gave up six runs over just 2 2-3 innings. When he’s pitching well, he can get a long leash and has topped 100 pitches in four of his last six starts. Over his 65 career afternoon starts, he owns a 5.47 ERA with batters hitting .280 which is just slightly higher than his overall career numbers. The Orioles are 7-12 straight up in Lyles’ starts and 11-9 to the Under.   

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1 in the Rays’ last seven vs. the American League East. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Orioles

Rays vs Orioles picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Over the first three games of the series, the difference has been the Baltimore bullpen, which has thrown 15 2-3 innings and allowed just one earned run with a 19/3 K/BB compared to its starters, who have given up 11 earned runs over just 12-plus innings. 

The Orioles’ pen is one of the best units in baseball, but due to high usage, Jorge Lopez, Dillon Tate, and Nick Vespi are likely out due to high pitch counts in the series and specifically last night. Starter Jordan Lyles will be tasked with eating some innings, but there are still some strong arms in the pen that can shut down the late innings — just not as many as usual.

Tampa's Ryan Yarbrough will be working on short rest, and although he has had some success vs. this Baltimore lineup, this is still a pitcher who doesn’t strike out batters, walks too many, and gives up plenty of flyballs. With high temperatures and humidity, as well as a double-digit wind blowing out to right field at Oriole Park, the Rays' starter weaknesses might be accented this afternoon.

Tampa closed as a +105 road underdog in a similar pitching matchup last night, and with Tampa having to travel back to Florida and start another big series vs. the Guardians, this is a great schedule spot for the home side.

I had the Orioles as a slight favorite before the lines came out and the books opened the home side as -115 which is bang on. There isn’t much value on the moneyline today, but I feel the O's have a better advantage later in the game and the starting pitching matchup is fairly even with two starters who could give up some early runs.

I’m not playing a side here but the Baltimore -115 to -120 line is accurate and could move five points either way from book to book.

Prediction: Orioles moneyline (-119 at Coolbet)

Over/Under analysis

This afternoon’s total opened at 9.0 which is the highest number of the four games in the series. Last night with a similar pitching matchup, the total closed at 8.5 and today’s total is trending towards 9.5.

Full-game Overs with the Orioles is a play I tend to stay away from. The bullpen is so strong that scoring in the later innings dries up more often than not. It’s such a strong pen that even with three or four possible relievers unavailable today, I’m still hesitant to hit the full-game Over, even at 9.0. 

One thing I’m looking to hit is the first five Over 4.5. Yarbrough is pitching on short rest and his flyball tendencies could lead to some extra carry at Oriole Park with the hitting conditions in favor of the batters. He doesn’t pitch deep into games but has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts. THE BAT X has him projected for over 3.0 earned runs in just over five innings of work today.

Lyles is also a good candidate to give up some runs before handing things off to the more stable bullpen. The Rays have tagged the Baltimore starting pitching for eight earned runs over 12 2-3 innings in the series and chased Lyles early in his last start, where he gave up six runs and recorded just eight outs. 

Lyles is also a flyball pitcher with an HR/9 well above 1.00. Batters are hitting .280 off the O's right-hander and THE BAT X is projecting him 3.37 earned runs over 16 total outs.

With the projections expecting over six earned runs from today’s combined starters thanks to both of their high flyball rates and HR/9, I’m doing what I usually do with Baltimore Overs and taking the F5 Over 4.5.

Prediction: First five innings Over 4.5 (-120 at bet365) 

Best bet

Baltimore has gotten just 12 2-3 innings out of their three starters this series, as the Rays have knocked them around for eight earned runs and a whopping 20 hits. The Orioles desperately need Lyles to go deep to save the pen with a series at Great American Ballpark on deck and a playoff race to win.

Lyles’ total out market sits at 17.5 and I'm hesitant to hit the Under because even if the starter gets knocked around, he’ll be asked to eat innings today.

I know the O's have given him a long leash as he has thrown 99 or more pitches in five of his last six starts and has topped out at 111 pitches over that stretch.

With a long leash comes a higher probability of hits and runs allowed and I'm hitting the Over 5.5 hits allowed for a pitcher who averages 1.13 hits per inning. 

Jordan Lyles Prop Pick: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-120)

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