The San Francisco Giants have now dropped four of their last six games and will now go up against one of the best teams in baseball on Monday. But with Tampa Bay now missing their best hitter, could the Rays be vulnerable on the road?
We'll break it all down in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Giants on August 14.
Rays vs Giants odds
Rays vs Giants predictions
The San Francisco Giants have been doing their best impersonation of the Tampa Bay Rays by finding new and creative ways to win games this season, essentially carrying just three starting pitchers and a bevy of effective long relief arms. The likes of Sean Manaea, Tristan Beck, Jakob Junis, and Alex Wood haven’t exactly fared well in the rotation, but they’ve had varying levels of success coming in behind an opener.
That strategy will once again be deployed on Monday when Ryan Walker gets things started for San Francisco. The right-hander is yet another random arm that the Giants have seemed to produce in a laboratory, pitching to an exquisite 2.56 xERA this season with a solid 25.9% strikeout rate. Walker should match up well tonight against a Rays team that has begun to wane offensively, posting a 113 wRC+ in the last two weeks.
The Giants will follow Walker with Manaea and Beck — both of whom have been excellent this year since moving to the bullpen. On top of that, the Rays are good — not great — against lefties with a 112 wRC+, so Manaea shouldn’t have too big of a task in front of him as the primary pitcher here.
While Tyler Glasnow has had his fair share of issues this season, his ground ball rate continues to rise and that has helped him pitch much better. He hasn’t started in a couple of weeks due to a minor injury, but prior to that, he owned a 2.11 ERA in July.
I love the Under here with both pitching stables in a good position to shove.
My best bet: Under 7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Rays vs Giants same-game parlay
Under 7.5 (-115)
Tyler Glasnow to record 8+ strikeouts (+100)
Yandy Diaz to record 2+ total bases (-105)
The Giants have really had an issue with strikeouts this season, which makes a lot of sense considering this team is built around power. They own a 24.9% strikeout rate on the season and have struck out 24.3% of the time over the last two weeks.
That leads me to my first non-Under leg, which is going to be Glasnow’s strikeout total. The right-hander's had eight or more punchouts in six of his last seven outings and ranks in the 97th percentile of baseball when it comes to swing-and-miss rate.
Finally, I like Yandy Diaz to have a nice game tonight. He should be right back atop the Rays’ order and they’ll certainly need him to produce with Wander Franco now on the league’s restricted list. Diaz is batting .373 over the last two weeks and should get to face the lefty Manaea at least once — a split he’s always dominated in.
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Rays vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Rays are going to have a leg up here in the pitching department with Glasnow on the hill. Even with the Giants figuring out a way to come up with two patchwork quality starts every five days, nothing can compare to the righty’s other-worldly talent.
With that being said, Tampa Bay is going to be without Franco here and that absence can’t be overstated. He’s batting .400 over the last two weeks and has routinely been slotted in right at the top of the Rays' order after Diaz. Without the Rays superstar shortstop, this team is going to take a massive step back offensively.
Over at DraftKings, the Giants have commanded just 26% of the bets and 25% of the handle, representing a strong contrarian play. You’d be wise to back San Francisco should you choose to avoid the total.
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Trend to know
The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 104 games (+17.80 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Giants
Rays vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Monday, August 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports Sun |
Starting pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (5-3, 3.15 ERA): The righty will be making his first start since late July after dealing with back spasms. Prior to being scratched from his scheduled start on August 6, he had allowed just four earned runs in his previous three starts.
Ryan Walker (4-1, 2.40 ERA): This will be Walker’s ninth appearance of the year as the opener. He owns a 1.69 ERA in the month, allowing just one run on five hits with three strikeouts over the course of 5 1/3 innings.
