Rangers vs Rays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Nasty Nate Returns to Tampa

The Texas Rangers silenced a sparsely attended Tropicana Field with a 4-0 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of their Wild Card series.

Nevertheless, MLB odds have the Rays pegged as favorites to take Game 2 to even the score as they hope to salvage their World Series odds going forward. 

Let's break down this matchup with my best free MLB picks for Game 2 between the Rangers and Rays on Wednesday, October 4 to go along with our MLB playoff predictions.

Rangers vs Rays odds

Rangers vs Rays Game 2 odds

Rangers vs Rays series odds

Team
Texas Rangers	-240	-235	-220	-222	-227
Tampa Bay Rays	+200	+186	+180	+180	+185

Rangers vs Rays predictions

The Texas Rangers have handled Nathan Eovaldi with kid gloves since he sustained a right forearm strain at the end of July. His absence was a tough blow to a rotation that had already lost prized offseason acquisition Jacob deGrom for the rest of the year (and most of next season) due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in September, making six starts down the stretch, and wasn't particularly sharp. His ERA ballooned from 2.69 to 3.63 over those outings.

So why, pray tell, would I anchor my best bet to Eovaldi against a lineup like that of the Tampa Bay Rays? Well, value, for one. Necessity, for another.

The Rangers hit even harder times as the season neared its conclusion. In addition to deGrom, midseason addition Max Scherzer and mid-rotation starter Jon Gray were both sidelined and are not on the Wild Card roster. And while it's likely a broken record at this point, the Rangers bullpen is a certifiable disaster. 

Yes, the relievers escaped Game 1 unscathed thanks to Jordan Montgomery's seven shutout innings, but that doesn't mean going to the bullpen early is the ideal option with a series on the line. And if the Rays win, the advantage will slide back in their direction for Game 3.

Another good sign for Eovaldi has been his pitch count. He has eclipsed 80 in three straight as it has gradually increased since his return. And while he struggled in his last start against Seattle, he also saw his fastball velocity tick back up to his early-season averages of around 95 mph (even touching 97 at times). 

His outs recorded prop is set at 14.5, so he only has to finish five innings to cash. Prior to his injury, this is something he did in all 19 regular-season starts. With his fastball creeping back toward its norm and the Rangers bullpen being a ticking time bomb, this number is too low to pass up and you can get it at nearly even money.

The Rangers have been saving Eovaldi for an occasion such as this. Time to cash in.

My best bet: Nathan Eovaldi Over 14.5 outs recorded (-105 at BetMGM)

Rangers vs Rays same-game parlay

Eovaldi Over 14.5 outs

Seager Over 1.5 TB

Arozarena Over 1.5 TB

+900 at bet365

With a wider variety of markets, I'm shifting to bet365 for my SGP. However, it's worth noting that Eovaldi's outs prop is at -115, so if you're intent on betting that one straight up, stick with BetMGM.

Corey Seager went 2-for-4 in Tuesday's win and is coming off a season where he slashed .327/.390/.623 while matching his career high in homers with 33 despite playing in just 119 games. His 42 doubles were also just two off his 2019 mark.

He thoroughly raked against righties this season and while Rays hurler Zach Eflin has been very reliable, Seager will not be denied. He finished the regular season with the most doubles in the AL (remember, he did this in considerably fewer games than most of his peers) and tied for fifth in total bases.

Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena was one of the few hitters to make an impact on Tuesday, going 2-for-4 with a double. His splits were virtually identical from a batting average standpoint during the regular season when facing lefties or righties, so it's not like Eovaldi will be too much of an obstacle.

Besides, Arozarena could do the bulk of his damage once Eovaldi leaves. While he's shaping up to pitch deeper than he did down the stretch, we can't expect him to go eight innings. And only Washington Nationals relievers allowed homers at a higher clip than the Texas bullpen.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Rays are considerable favorites on the moneyline, listed as short as -175 at the time of this writing. If you're confident in the Rays pulling out a victory, which could easily happen even if Eovaldi has a strong showing, then you might want to turn your attention to series odds.

Tampa Bay is currently available at +200 to win the series thanks to losing Game 1. Remember, Texas' bullpen is atrocious and the rotation is full of question marks beyond Eovaldi. So a win today shapes up well for a series victory and those odds will tighten considerably if Tampa takes Game 2.

The total is mostly set at 8.0, though there are a few rogue 7.5s with a little more juice. This is slightly elevated from Game 1, likely due to Eovaldi's shakiness since returning from injury and the Rangers struggles in the relief department. Still, I'm not confident in either side of that number. 

This remains a matchup between the two most potent lineups in the American League, so the Over is certainly in play. But, Eovaldi and Eflin, when at their best, can limit most anyone. And as we saw in Game 1, even these powerhouse offenses can be held in check once in a while. 

Trend to know

Prior to his injury, Nathan Eovaldi completed 5+ innings in each of his 19 starts in 2023. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Rays

Rangers vs Rays game info

Starting pitchers

Nathan Eovaldi (12-5, 3.63 ERA): The veteran hurler has largely risen to the occasion in his limited postseason appearances, owning a 3.14 ERA in 43 playoff innings. He was a key component of the Boston Red Sox pitching staff in their 2018 World Series run. And even though he was saddled with the loss, he gutted out six incredible innings in extras against the Dodgers in Game 3 in one of the most memorable playoff pitching performances in recent years.

Zach Eflin (16-8, 3.50 ERA): After an occasionally solid, if unspectacular, seven-year run with the Phillies, Eflin sparkled in his first season with Tampa, fully justifying the biggest free-agent signing in club history. This will be his first-ever postseason start after pitching exclusively in relief for Philly in last year's playoffs.

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