Rangers vs Rays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Montgomery Rises to Meet the Challenge

The 2023 Major League Baseball postseason is here and the first game on the slate takes us to Tropicana Field as the Texas Rangers square off against the Tampa Bay Rays in a battle between injury-ravaged teams this aternoon.

MLB odds have the Rays pegged as the betting favorites for this particular series, though neither team is seen as a front-runner in the latest World Series odds. Despite their injuries, both squads will look to take the early advantage by sending their best (see: healthy) starter to the mound this afternoon.

In addition to my best MLB picks for the Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday, October 3, Covers has you covered with a full selection of MLB playoff predictions. 

Rangers vs Rays odds

Rangers vs Rays Game 1 odds

Rangers vs Rays series odds

Team
Rangers	+140	+138	+140	+152	+135
Rays	-165	-170	-160	-180	-164

Rangers vs Rays predictions

The Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays share a few similarities entering this best-of-3 series at Tropicana Field. One, both starting rotations have been thoroughly dismantled by injuries. The Rangers lost Jacob deGrom to Tommy John surgery early in the summer and later sent their premier trade deadline acquisition Max Scherzer to the injured list with a shoulder injury. Scherzer could pitch in the postseason at some point — if Texas keeps playing — but there's a lot of uncertainty.

Even Nathan Eovaldi, who looked like the club's ace for the first half of the season, has spent time on the IL and hasn't looked quite as sharp since returning.

Meanwhile, the Rays are without Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane Baz — a group that would be a fairly fearsome foursome as a playoff rotation on its own, if healthy.

Then, we come to the offenses. These were the two most potent lineups in the American League with the Rangers tallying 881 runs and the Rays scoring 860. 

This is likely a reason why de facto Rangers ace Jordan Montgomery is seeing his outs-recorded prop at a mere 15.5 with plus money available to the Over. With all the injuries that ran rampant through Texas' pitching staff, Montgomery — not Scherzer — turned out to be the steadying catalyst for the club's ultimate playoff push. It's fair to say the Rangers aren't playing today without Montgomery in the rotation.

In 11 starts since being acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals, Monty has gone 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA. After a surprising bump in the road over two starts in early September, he righted the ship and has allowed just two earned runs over his last four starts (27 innings), good for a 0.67 ERA in that span.

Obviously, that doesn't endear him enough to have the ultimate edge over a lineup such as this, but the Rangers need length in addition to quality innings from the left-hander this afternoon. Eovaldi will likely follow in the rotation, but his durability remains a question mark. Beyond him, it's maybe Dane Dunning or Andrew Heaney in a potential Game 3 (oh yeah, Jon Gray is also injured). So getting the most out of Montgomery is paramount.

This is especially the case with Texas' bullpen being the dirt worst among playoff teams. Rangers relievers posted an awful 4.77 ERA this season. It's been even worse over the last month (4.83). The back end has been especially putrid, with Aroldis Chapman and Will Smith posting unseemly second-half ERAs of 4.15 and 6.12, respectively.

For the Rangers to have a hope in this series, Montgomery will have to shoulder the load in Game 1. And even if he's a little shaky, this prop number is too low and offers excellent value.

My best bet: Jordan Montgomery Over 15.5 outs recorded (+120 at bet365)

Rangers vs Rays same-game parlay

Jordan Montgomery Over 15.5 outs

Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 walks

Over 5.5 runs

+525 at bet365

Montgomery is not a strikeout pitcher, and even with a prop of 4.5, the Over isn't that appealing, so we're sticking with the Outs for the SGP. Montgomery has routinely pitched into the sixth inning and only needs to record one out after the fifth (something he's done in 25 of his 32 starts.

His counterpart on the Rays, Tyler Glasnow, is a prototypical power pitcher who can rack up strikeouts with the best of them. However, the Rangers rank middle-of-the-pack in terms of strikeout rate (22.5%) and can chase a starter early when the bats are clicking. And for as injured as Texas' rotation is, the offense is at full strength. Instead, I like Glasnow to issue at least a pair of free passes against a lineup that walks in 9.5% of its plate appearances (5th in MLB).

Finally, let's grab the Over on the alternate total of 5.5. These are two potent offenses, and while I am tempted to take the plus money on the Rangers to win this game outright, I simply do not trust that bullpen to hold a lead of any size. That said, I do trust that bullpen to continue to struggle, which would go a long way to pushing us to the Over on a manageable total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The moneyline for Game 1 opened between -145 and -165 for the Rays and +115 and +125 for the Rangers. Most sportsbooks are in that shorter range for Tampa on Tuesday morning, with lines as short as -167 in play for the home team. Meanwhile, the longest line for Texas available is +134.

The total opened at 7.5 with a few stray 8.0s available before settling back at 7.5 across the industry by Tuesday morning. It's a tricky total because we're getting two of the best lineups going toe-to-toe but both sides are trotting out their most reliable hurlers. It wouldn't be shocking if Game 2 came in at 8.5 with a downgraded pitching matchup.

Still, both teams know how to score with sluggers like Texas' Corey Seager and Marcus Semien and Tampa's Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena leading the way. The game total Over has hit in 46 of the Rays' last 73 home games and the Rangers have seen the Over hit in 24 of their last 37 overall.

The Rays feasted on left-handed pitching this season with a .783 OPS vs. southpaws. And while that could spell trouble against Montgomery (not enough to give him the early boot), it could also spell disaster if Texas turns to the struggling Chapman or Smith in relief. 

Trend to know

Jordan Montgomery has gone Over 15.5 outs recorded in 25 of his 32 starts in 2023. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Rays

Rangers vs Rays game info

Starting pitchers

Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20 ERA): Montgomery is hitting free agency at the right time as the 30-year-old just wrapped up a career season with highs in innings pitched and the best ERA of his seven-year career.

Tyler Glasnow (10-7, 3.53 ERA): With all the injuries to the rotation, the Rays needed a lifeline and that arrived in the form of a returning Glasnow, who struck out 162 batters across 120 innings of work. 

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