The Philadelphia Phillies have been streaking all season. They set a record for best 50-game start in franchise history with a win over the Texas Rangers on Wednesday.
They'll seek a second consecutive series sweep in the finale today and are set as -218 moneyline favorites in the MLB odds. With Texas sending winless Andrew Heaney to the bump, my Rangers vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks expect more of the same.
Rangers vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Phillies -1.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
There are only 42 teams in baseball history to have won 36 of their first 50 games. Since 1900, that number is 26, and the last team to get off to such a start is the 2001 Seattle Mariners. What haven’t the Philadelphia Phillies been doing great in building a 36-14 mark?
They lead the league in runs scored at a healthy 5.33 runs per game while ranking no lower than seventh in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Philadelphia boasts a Top 3 ERA at 3.17, while leading the majors in strikeouts, and fifth in both WHIP and opponents’ batting average (.223).
They've clubbed the Texas Rangers in the first two of this set, outscoring them 16-6 as they head into the finale.
Veteran Zack Wheeler gets the call, and after losing each of his first three starts, he’s picked up wins in five of his last six outings. Last time out, he tied a season-best by lasting 7 1/3 innings, scattering three hits and giving up just two earned runs while striking out six.
It’s been a sluggish start for the defending champs, who sit two games under .500, but that’s still good enough for second in a watered-down AL West. Offensively, Texas ranks on the fringes of the Top 10 in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. In 2023, the Rangers were never lower than third in any of those categories.
The pitching hasn’t been able to support the drop-off: the Rangers have an ERA of 4.16, which comes in at a lowly 18th, while they've issued the fourth-most walks in the majors.
At 0-5, Heaney would love to break the goose in the win column, but he’s running into a juggernaut on Thursday. Last time out, he was chased before completing four innings in a 9-3 loss to the Angels. Heaney gave up five hits, two earned runs, a pair of walks, and five strikeouts.
Texas had won eight straight in this head-to-head before getting thumped twice in a row this series. Philly is on some kind of tear right now, with five straight wins and just four losses in its last 25. They’ve won by 2+ runs 16 times during this run.
A struggling starter and a middling offense aren’t going to cut it against them on getaway day.
Rangers vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies -1.5
Alec Bohm Over 0.5 RBI
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
With a pair of RBI on Wednesday, Phillies’ third baseman Alec Bohm has driven in nine runs over the last three games. He’s driven in at least one run in seven of his last nine games, part of the reason he’s tied for first in the bigs with 46 RBI. With plus-money odds to drive in a run on Thursday, I’ll happily add him to this SGP.
Let’s wrap this up with Bohm’s teammate Bryce Harper. He went yard Wednesday, making it three straight games in which he’s totaled 2+ total bases. In his last 16 games, Harper has gone hitless in just four and has picked up at least two total bases in eight of them. Harper should get in some good cuts against Heaney.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Phillies odds
Rangers vs Phillies live odds
Rangers vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-125) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: Texas +175 | Philadelphia -210
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Rangers vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine as the moneyline favorite.
- The Rangers have just two wins in their last 10 games.
- The Rangers have gone Under the total in three of their last four.
- The Over is 6-3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 10 outings.
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Rangers vs Phillies trend
The home team has won each of the last seven head-to-head matchups. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Phillies
Rangers vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSW, NBC 10 |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Andrew Heaney (0-5, 4.43 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (5-3, 2.52 ERA) |
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