The Texas Rangers found some life with back-to-back wins over the Baltimore Orioles, and now they’ll head on the road to face a slumping San Diego Padres team that's falling fast in the NL West.
We’ll explain in our Rangers vs. Padres predictions why the Rangers should hold a decisive edge in the pitching matchup — and how they’ve surprised at the plate of late.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Friday, July 4.
Rangers vs Padres prediction
My Rangers vs Padres best bet: Rangers moneyline (-115 at Caesars)
It hasn’t exactly been the most straightforward career for Kumar Rocker, who emerged from some serious injury concerns to jet to the Big Leagues a year ago. Since then, he’s struggled to find his best approach, but after a trip down to the minors, he looks like he’s ready to produce.
Rocker has begun to mix in a cutter and lean on his changeup a bit more, and now that his arsenal is taking shape, the numbers have followed suit. He’s struck out 21 in 19 2/3 innings this month, allowing 19 hits and just two homers in the process. Walks have been an occasional concern, but you’ll happily take them if it means an influx of punchouts and fewer hits overall.
This will be an interesting test for Rocker, as the San Diego Padres rarely strike out, but the saving grace is the fact they’re outside the Top 20 in OPS to ground-ball pitchers like the young righty, doing a bit more damage against fly-ball arms.
Randy Vasquez, meanwhile, has few redeeming qualities. He pitches to a ton of fly balls, which works for him at home where he’s got a 3.14 ERA. He does struggle to limit walks, though, and ranks in the Bottom 1% of the league in strikeouts, which certainly puts the onus on his fielders — and his park — to rescue him time and time again.
In a surprising turn, the Texas Rangers have actually out-hit the Padres in the last two weeks, running a .234 average and .128 isolated power. They’re not incredible numbers by any means, but they’re close to the league baseline — and certainly stronger than San Diego’s recent figures.
On top of that, the Rangers have begun to improve in the plate discipline department and rank 14th in on-base percentage in the last two weeks, meaning the frequent control issues of Vasquez may play a part in deciding this one.
I couldn’t hate Vasquez’s matchup any more with the Rangers in line to receive some gifted walks, and on the flip side, this Padres offense is ice cold and set to run into a young righty who’s improving with every start.
Rangers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Rangers moneyline
Kumar Rocker 5+ strikeouts
Corey Seager 2+ total bases
This is an attainable number for Rocker, who has now struck out five or more batters in three of his last four outings. Now, he draws a Padres team which is stingy, but has failed to hit at all over the last two weeks and should keep Rocker in the game for a long enough time to get to this number.
I also like Corey Seager, who’s beginning to heat up. Not only is he riding an eight-game hitting streak, over which he’s hitting .333, but he’s also gone yard six times off fly-ball arms, which is good for second on the team, and he’s hitting a respectable .250 in the split as well. Seager’s never faced Vasquez, but this should be an excellent spot for him.
Rangers vs Padres odds
Rangers vs Padres live odds
Rangers vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas +100 | San Diego -120
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-200) | San Diego -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Rangers vs Padres trend
The Padres have cashed the first five innings team total Under in 33 of their last 51 games (+13.20 units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Padres.
How to watch Rangers vs Padres and game info
| Location | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Friday, 7-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network, CW33, PADRES.tv |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Kumar Rocker (3-4, 6.13 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.84 ERA) |
Rangers vs Padres latest injuries
Rangers vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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