Rangers vs Orioles Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bradish Bullies Texas Lineup

The Baltimore Orioles will host their first postseason game since 2016 when they take on the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Saturday afternoon. 

The Rangers swept the Tampa Bay Rays in the first round of the playoffs while the Baltimore Orioles earned the top seed in the American League... though the MLB odds have them only second on the World Series odds board to make it out of the AL, behind the Houston Astros.

In the first game of this series, the Orioles will roll out a dominant starter against a man who spent most of September working out of the bullpen. I’ll break down what this means for Saturday’s matchup in my free MLB picks for the Rangers vs. Orioles in Game 1. Be sure to also check out Covers' MLB playoff predictions to get more postseason analysis.

Rangers vs Orioles odds

Rangers vs Orioles Game 1 odds

Rangers vs Orioles series odds

Team
Rangers	-105	+100	+100	-115	+100
Orioles	-115	-122	-120	-105	-120

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Rangers vs Orioles predictions

Kyle Bradish was one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, putting up a 2.43 ERA with a WHIP of 1.043. The 27-year-old showed improved control, had more strikeouts, and a better ability to avoid the long ball than he did in his rookie season.

If anything, Bradish was even better down the stretch. Since August 6, Bradish is 5-1 with a 1.87 ERA in his last 10 starts, a dominant run that ended with a soft two-inning appearance against the Boston Red Sox to wrap up the season on October 1. Bradish is fresh, hot, and has a career ERA of just 1.35 against the Texas Rangers in three starts. 

Texas will counter with Andrew Heaney. The 32-year-old set a career high in wins this year but couldn’t maintain his position in Texas' rotation down the stretch. Six of his last seven appearances came out of the bullpen, and while most of those appearances were strong, the Rangers likely feel more comfortable with Heaney out of the bullpen and are only turning to him for rotational depth coming off their Wild Card series.

Unlike Bradish, Heaney hasn’t found much success against the Baltimore Orioles. In two starts against them this year, Heaney went 1-1 with a 7.45 ERA over 9 2/3 innings.

If that feels like a small sample size, the Orioles have plenty of other numbers that show they should find success in Game 1. Baltimore is hitting .260 with a .764 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, both numbers that are significantly better than its performance against righties.

While Texas can put up runs as well, Bradish is finding his stride and should be able to continue his success against the Rangers. Baltimore is playing at home in front of what should be a rowdy crowd hungry to watch this young team win its first playoff game since 2014. The Orioles should win this game by a healthy margin and jump out to an early lead in the series.

My best bet: Orioles -1.5 (+145 at bet365)

Rangers vs Orioles same-game parlay

Orioles -1.5

Bradish 6+ Ks

Mountcastle 1+ hit

+360 at FanDuel

For my Game 1 same-game parlay, I’m predicting a dominant day for Baltimore. That starts with taking the Orioles to cover the run line at -1.5, but I also expect strong performances on both the mound and at the plate.

I’m picking Bradish to pick up at least six strikeouts on Saturday. Not counting his two-inning appearance to end the season, Bradish got to at least six Ks in six of his last eight appearances and is likely to go deep today.

On the offensive end, I’m backing Ryan Mountcastle to get a hit off of Heaney or the Rangers bullpen. Mountcastle is hitting .338 against southpaws this year, which matches up great against a mediocre lefty in Heaney. If Baltimore does win the game, a Mountcastle hit is a likely outcome that adds some value to my SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Orioles opened this game as a -141 favorite and the line has moved in favor of Baltimore, with the consensus closer to Orioles -148 as of early Saturday. You can find a number as long as +126 on Texas for Game 1.

The Rangers outperformed expectations, winning 2.5 units for bettors on the moneyline this season. But that’s nothing compared to the Orioles, who were the surprise team of the season, winning an astounding 39 units for backers in 2023.

If you’re not interested in laying the run line in Game 1, I think taking Baltimore on the moneyline is an excellent alternative. The Orioles have a clear advantage in this series, and the pitching matchup on display today is a clear example of where they have more talent than the Rangers. While Texas may have just a bit more offensive firepower, Bradish will shut that down and lead Baltimore to victory in the series opener.

The total on this game opened at eight runs and has largely stuck around at that number. There’s some disagreement on which side should be the favorite, however: You can get -105 on the Under, or -107 on the Over by shopping around. 

Both teams played slightly above the number this year. The Over went 81-72 in Baltimore’s games this season, while also putting up an 82-70 mark during Texas’ contests in 2023.

If the line went up to 8.5 runs, I’d probably advise staying away from the total in Game 1. But the flat eight-run total makes me lean towards the Over. The Orioles should be able to take advantage of a weak starter in Heaney and be able to score a solid number of runs at home. At some point, I expect the Texas lineup to do something, even if it doesn’t come off of Bradish and amounts to some consolation runs in garbage time. The Over is the play, but a push is a pretty likely outcome.

Trend to know

The Orioles went 36-17 against southpaw starters in 2023. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Orioles

Rangers vs Orioles game info

Starting pitchers

Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15 ERA): A 10-year journeyman, Heaney put up a solid season for the Rangers this year, posting an ERA better than the league average while mostly working as a starter. However, Texas moved him to bullpen duty in September before giving him a key start in the playoff clincher against the Seattle Mariners on September 30. Heaney went 4 1/3 strong innings, shutting out the Mariners on five hits while striking out two batters. 

Kyle Bradish (12-7, 2.86 ERA): After a rookie season that largely went under the radar, Bradish became the anchor of the Baltimore rotation in 2023. The 27-year-old could receive some consolation votes in the AL Cy Young Award race after allowing just 14 homers in 168 2/3 innings of work. He was even better down the stretch, solidifying his position as the Game 1 starter for the Orioles.

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