After some re-shuffling in the rotation, the Texas Rangers will turn to Jon Gray on Wednesday, June 12 in his first start back from injury vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Gray was able to successfully pitch out of the bullpen just four days ago, and I think he can help Texas get even with L.A., as I explain in my Rangers vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for tonight.
Rangers vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Rangers moneyline (+164 at BetRivers)
My analysis
It’s a bit of a mystery as to how far Jon Gray will go for the Texas Rangers on Wednesday, working on three days’ rest after throwing 27 pitches out of the bullpen. But it would seem he’s at least ready to give the Rangers four innings, and with the way Texas dipped into their bullpen for 90 pitches between Jonathan Hernandez, Grant Anderson, and Jesus Tinoco on Tuesday, it would seem they’ll be incentivized to let Gray work if he’s somewhat effective.
That’s very good news, because Gray has been fantastic this year with a 2.12 ERA in 59 1/3 innings. He carries a much-improved 24.5% strikeout rate into this one and while his xBA is up a hair, he’s jumped up to the 63rd percentile in ground-ball rate his year. That’s imperative because the Rangers own one of the best infield defenses in the league, and that’s the likely culprit for his results coming in well below his 3.94 xERA.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been back to themselves over the last week with a 168 wRC+ backed by solid showings in the strikeout and walk departments, but against Gray it would seem their beefy .265 Isolated Power will come back down given his new-found love for the ground ball and his decent barrel and xSLG figures. It’s also worth noting that the Dodgers have run into some very friendly matchups against the Rockies and Pirates of late, and got to pick on Nestor Cortes in a great stylistic matchup over the weekend.
I’m far less confident in Walker Buehler, who continues to be a shell of his former self. He owns a 4.82 ERA in six starts since coming off the injured list with some real issues in limiting slugging and producing ground balls. This follows a rocky rehab assignment and a poor 2022 campaign which saw him post a 4.28 xERA prior to going under the knife to repair his elbow.
Texas may be struggling at the moment, but it is still putting a ton of balls in play. As a team which possesses some power, it can reasonably attack a pitcher in Buehler who’s had a whale of a time limiting loud contact. I like the Rangers to get one back here.
Rangers vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Rangers moneyline
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases
Jonah Heim Over 0.5 hits
It may not seem as if throwing Betts in here is a brave or “sharp” move, but in combining this prop with the Rangers moneyline, we’re going to see a significant jump in the implied probability of this parlay. On top of that, the matchup is simply too good to ignore.
Not only does Betts have a hit in five straight, cashing his total bases prop in three of those contests, he’s also the league-leader in total bases against ground-ball pitchers sporting an incredible .345/.441/.672 slash line within the split. He’s only faced Gray four times, picking up a hit in one of three at-bats, but this should be a very profitable spot to play one of the hottest hitters in baseball.
Then, I’m going to back a guy down towards the bottom of the Rangers’ order who is quietly heating up and checks a lot of boxes. Heim’s got a hit in four of his last six games, and he’s hit better against right-handers. He’s also 2-for-3 against Buehler in his career and has been a great hitter against the four-seam fastball and the knuckle curve, two pitches he’ll see a lot of from Buehler.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Dodgers odds
Rangers vs Dodgers live odds
Rangers vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Moneyline: Texas +151 | Los Angeles -174
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Rangers vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- With some uncertainty surrounding Texas’ pitching plan, the Dodgers were sitting around -165 for most of Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before jumping to -185 when we learned Gray would be starting.
- The total hasn’t moved quite as much, remaining at 8.5 runs with some movement towards the Over.
- The Dodgers are accounting for just 13% of the bets on the moneyline over at DraftKings, but a stronger 45% of the handle.
- While 72% of the tickets are on the Over, 65% of the cash is on the Under.
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Rangers vs Dodgers trend
The Rangers have hit the Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Dodgers
Rangers vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSW, SNLA |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Jon Gray (2-2, 2.12 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (1-3, 4.82 ERA) |
Rangers vs Dodgers latest injuries
Rangers vs Dodgers weather
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