Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Kepler Leads the Way vs Giolito

Prop bet #1: Max says hi to Giolito

Lucas Giolito has had a bumpy season. At times, he's looked rock solid but, more often than not, he's been hit around. His Angels tenure was brief and forgettable, and now he starts a new chapter with the Cleveland Guardians against the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins.

One of the chief issues for the right-hander has been the gopher ball, serving up 30 homers in 153 2/3 innings. Only five other qualified starters have a worse HR/9 than Giolito.

Enter, Max Kepler. The Minnesota Twins outfielder has been one of the team's hottest hitters in the second half, batting .314 with a .956 OPS, a 161 wRC+, and 23 extra-base hits in 44 games. He's also had seven multi-hit games in his last 13. 

While yet another new home could spark some life into Giolito, that's not exactly a narrative you can hang a bet on. Instead, look at reality and Giolito has struggled to get batters out for months while serving up a lot of hard contact. Even if Kepler doesn't take him deep, he has other avenues of reaching the Over on 1.5 total bases.

Max Kepler prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Prop bet #2: Webb of dominance

San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb is one of the most consistent arms you'll find. He's one of the few hurlers who can be trusted to have a long leash, throwing at least 90 pitches in 24 of his 28 starts this season. 

And while Webb is generally more trustworthy on home soil (eclipsing six innings in 13 of his 14 starts at Oracle Park), he's recorded 18+ outs in 22 of 28 outings this season. And of the road games where he hasn't, one was in Colorado where it's always a challenge to go long and another was an anomalous 1 1/3-inning game against the Nats in late July.

Recency bias — Webb going Under 17.5 outs recorded in three straight road games — cannot be the driving force behind fading his Over today. Even with the Chicago Cubs boasting one of baseball's best offenses, Webb is generally a model of efficiency, allowing him to pitch long. He's walked more than two batters in only one outing all season and that came back in May. In fact, he hasn't even issued two walks in any start since July 3, a span of 10 outings.

Even if the Cubs rattle off some base hits, he's generally been able to limit the damage. A ground ball pitcher, Webb has surrendered just two home runs across his six starts since the beginning of August. Even with winds blowing out of Wrigley, I like Webb to keep the ball in the park and to go at least six innings.

Logan Webb prop: Over 17.5 outs recorded (-115)

Prop bet #3: Woo-hoo!

I love a key number. Seattle Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo has his outs recorded prop set at 14.5 for today's game against the Cincinnati Reds, meaning he just has to finish five innings to cash. Woo has had some ups and downs in his rookie campaign, but he's finished five innings in nine of his last 11 starts.

He's facing a team in the Reds that don't make a ton of contact, boasting the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the majors. While that doesn't incline me to take the Over on Woo's strikeout prop at even money (Over 5.5 Ks), it does give me faith in his ability to navigate this lineup for a standard outing.

It's juiced fairly heavily with the vig at -155, so grab this before it crosses that number to 15.5, which would be a bit less appealing, though Woo has managed to finish six full innings in three of his last five starts and five of eight.

While he was limited to just four innings two starts ago, Woo was coming off a stint on the IL and the Mariners have eased him back into his role, not eclipsing 70 pitches in either of those two recent outings. A reason why he was able to twirl six shutout innings in his last game on just 69 pitches — apart from it coming against the A's — is his overall efficiency. While he's not otherworldly with his command like teammate George Kirby, Woo doesn't issue a lot of free passes, walking more than two batters only twice all season. 

And though he gives up his share of contact, Woo has limited the long ball, not allowing a home run in any of his most recent 21 innings. It's a recipe for him to go at least five, if not more, this afternoon. 

Bryan Woo prop: Over 14.5 outs recorded (-155 at DraftKings)