Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Framber is the Color Of Your Energy

Prop bet #1: Valdez goes long

The final week of the MLB regular season will often see pitchers, particularly on playoff-bound teams, throw fewer innings in an attempt to preserve their arms for October. With Houston Astros odds looking less stable by the day, they can't afford to slip up any further against the Seattle Mariners tonight.

Enter Framber Valdez. The lefty has had his ups and downs but has also been a generally steady presence who eats a ton of innings on the regular. Entering play today, only three pitchers have accumulated 200 innings pitched this season. Valdez will eclipse that milestone if he goes six strong — or, 18 outs — against Seattle.

The Mariners have done relatively well against left-handers but also own the highest strikeout rate (26%) vs. southpaws this season. Now, you could use this as inspiration to take the Over on Valdez's 6.5 strikeouts at plus money, but I'm more inclined to take the outs for a couple of reasons.

Seattle's lineup has shown an all-or-nothing approach, which has worked well on the whole but has also yielded some inconsistent results. The Mariners strike out a ton and the bats can otherwise go silent. Valdez is not a prototypical strikeout arm, relying more on inducing soft contact to ensure the best results. Yes, he's fanned 10 batters in two of his last three starts, but those outings came against the Royals and A's.

Last night's starter, Cristian Javier, couldn't get out of the fifth inning, forcing Dusty Baker to go to the bullpen early. 

Valdez has completed six innings in 23 of 30 starts this season. With the playoffs far from a sure thing for the Astros — sitting half a game up on Seattle for the final wild-card spot — the sturdy lefty will need to be at his best and can be expected to pitch into the seventh.

Framber Valdez prop: Over 17.5 outs recorded (-140 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: A cryin' Shane

Cleveland Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber was on his way to being one of baseball's premier aces. Injuries have unfortunately derailed that progression and he's making just his second start since late July tonight against the Cincinnati Reds.

Bieber struggled against the Orioles last week, allowing four earned runs on six hits through five innings of work. On the bright side, he only issued one walk. However, he was pulled after 81 pitches as the Guardians look to keep the workload less taxing.

Cleveland has nothing left to play for. The Twins clinched the AL Central and hopes of sneaking into the final wild-card slot have vanished. There is absolutely no reason to push Bieber in what will amount to being his final start of 2023 (and maybe his final start in a Guardians uniform?).

Meanwhile, their cross-state rivals do have something to play for. The Reds trail the Marlins by a game in the NL wild-card race and feature a potent offense of young sluggers — much like the Orioles — who could make Bieber's life miserable tonight. Elly De La Cruz is coming off his first multi-homer game of his career and seems to be coming out of his extended funk.

Grab the plus money for Bieber to get pulled before the end of the sixth.

Shane Bieber prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+130 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Berrios stands tall

Jose Berrios is a workhorse, a reputation he's had dating back to his time with the Twins. The Toronto Blue Jays are in a good position to make the playoffs but aren't out of the woods just yet, and a good showing against the New York Yankees tonight will be essential.

Berrios needs to record just one out beyond the fifth inning to secure the Over on his outs-recorded prop. He's accomplished this in seven consecutive starts and in 15 of his last 16 outings and went 5 2/3 just last week against these same Yankees.

The Yankees offense has been truly heinous in the second half of the season, boasting the lowest team batting average (.219) over their last 66 games. The only thing they do well is draw walks (10.7% in the second half) and even then, Berrios didn't issue any free passes in that last meeting.

Away from home, the Yankees own a 90 wRC+ to go with a .228 batting average on the season. 

Berrios doesn't pitch into the eighth or ninth too often, but manager John Schneider will let him pitch relatively deep even when damage is done. Had the Jays gained a little more certainty with regards to their playoff position, maybe Berrios would get deployed differently. As it is, Toronto needs him to carry the load.

Jose Berrios prop: Over 15.5 outs recorded (-115 at DraftKings)