We head into another baseball weekend full of MLB prop betting highlighted by some excellent matchups, including the New York Yankees hosting the Chicago White Sox, while the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the San Francisco Giants.
But none are as good as the classic National League Central rivalry between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. The hated division foes open a series at Busch Stadium tonight and we bring you not just one, but two MLB prop bets for Game 1.
We break down and pick that game and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Friday, May 21.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Tampa Bay Rays resident strikeout artist Tyler Glasnow is coming off his worst strikeout performance of the season, punching out just six batters in six innings last time out against the Marlins. But we’re betting he bounces back in tonight’s matchup against the visiting Toronto Blue Jays.
Even with that “down” performance, Glasnow is still among the league leaders in strikeouts per nine innings at 13.3, and now he faces a Blue Jays team that he’s had success against, who are coming off a bad loss against the Boston Red Sox.
The Jays may be in a bit of a letdown spot after choking away a 7-5 lead to the BoSox last night and were rung up 10 times the last time they faced Glasnow back on April 23.
Even though this number is juiced quite heavily, this feels close to a lock. Glasnow has gone Over this number seven times in his nine starts this season and continues to rack up the Ks against teams not known for striking out.
Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Remember when some people thought Nolan Arenado numbers would drop now that he isn’t playing half his games at Coors Field? Yeah, that didn’t matter. He’s just good.
The St. Louis Cardinals' new third baseman is getting into a groove in his new digs. Arenado is currently on a six-game hitting streak where he's hitting 12-25 with four dingers. He has also hit safely in 14 of his last 15 games with 10 extra-base hits and has gone Over 1.5 total bases 11 times in that 15 game stretch. So, getting plus money here seems like a gift.
What makes it even more of a gift is that Arenado gets to go up against Kyle Hendricks. The Chicago Cubs soft-tossing lefty has been leaving his usually-strong changeup up in the zone far too often this season and as a result, it has been getting hammered.
Hendricks has a career-high WHIP of 1.55 and opponents are hitting .311 off him this season. One changeup left up in the zone and Arenado can eclipse this total bases number in a hurry.
Kris Bryant Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Arenado isn’t the only slugger we’re looking at in this classic National League Central rivalry, as the Cubs’ Kris Bryant also has a juicy total bases prop in this matchup.
Bryant has quietly been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball this entire season. Since the middle of April (28 games), the Cubs’ third baseman is hitting .343 with a 1.079 OPS which includes 17 extra-base hits. That said, while Bryant is 6-20 (.300) in his last five games, he has no extra-base hits in that time. So, he’s due.
And Bryant should be getting some nice fat pitches from St. Louis Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez. Despite a decent three-game stretch in May, the advanced numbers don’t reflect kindly on the Cardinals' right-hander.
Martinez has a fastball that is finding too much of the zone, a cutter that doesn’t cut, and a slider that he hangs way too much. Simply put, he is just not missing a lot of bats. Look for Bryant to jump all over a hanging slider or a fat cutter and cash his total bases prop as well.
Yesterday's MLB record: 2-1, 0.85 units
Season MLB betting record: 71-75-3, -6.65 units
MLB betting card for May 21
- Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-140)
- Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
- Kris Bryant Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Picks made on 5/21/2021 at 11:15 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB prop picks, you could win $71.78 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB props?
You can bet on MLB props at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB player props, derivatives, and a ton of other MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB props in your area.
