Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Buxton Blasts Off Against Greinke

Byron Buxton's power potential headlines our favorite MLB player prop picks for August 16. He's third in the AL with 28 long balls and squares off against a pitcher who rarely misses bats in Zack Greinke. We like Buxton to go yard once again.

Last Updated: Aug 16, 2022 3:33 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There's a full slate of games on the Major League Baseball schedule for Tuesday and plenty of player prop picks to go around.

We've identified three particular players worthy of consideration when perusing the various markets ahead of first pitch. We like one lefty to earn a win in South Florida and a pair of right-handed hitters to come through in big ways.

Without further ado, here are our favorite MLB player prop picks for Tuesday, Aug. 16.

MLB props for August 16

Picks made on 8/16/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

He's the Manaea

Sean Manaea has had an up-and-down season, but he's in a fantastic position to come away with a win on Tuesday evening against the Miami Marlins.

The veteran southpaw is generally given some space on the mound, throwing 90 or more pitches in 11 of his 21 outings this season and finishing six innings on 15 occasions. Pitching deep into games is a surefire way to at least put yourself in a spot to qualify for the decision.

Further helping his chances is his opponent. Miami is, by far, the worst-hitting team against left-handed pitchers in MLB this season with a 69 wRC+ and on-base percentage of .274. Marlins batters have struck out in 28.2% of their plate appearances vs. southpaws. The Pirates have done so in 26.7%, the second-highest strikeout rate against lefties. No other team strikes out in more than a quarter of their showdowns against LHP.

Now, a lot of this is dependent on the offense coming through when the starter is watching from the dugout. Despite being shut out last night against these very Marlins, the Padres have started to swing the bats with greater success in recent games.

Miami starter Edward Cabrera is a flamethrower who has found success through five starts, owning a 2.05 ERA. His 3.84 FIP and 3.26 expected ERA combined with a microscopic .186 BABIP suggests some luck has entered the equation. Add in his wildness, underlined by a 4.78 BB/9, and it's somewhat amazing that he hasn't surrendered more runs.

And even if his luck does stay intact, he's unlikely to go deep into his start as he hasn't finished six innings in any of his last three outings.

Sean Manaea Prop: To record a win (+125 at DraftKings)

Hook 'em Hoerner

The Chicago Cubs are bad but there are some rays of sunlight peeking through the clouds. One is infielder Nico Hoerner, who has hit .301/.347/.426 with seven home runs in 99 games this season.

He's batting .292 vs. lefties and has a cushy matchup against Washington Nationals southpaw Patrick Corbin and his 7.02 ERA and MLB-worst 161 hits allowed. 

Hoerner has eclipsed his total bases prop in 26 of his last 43 games and has 26 multi-hit games on the campaign. He's typically batting in the middle of Chicago's lineup, so he shouldn't lose out on too many opportunities to do damage, especially considering Corbin's inability to get batters out with regularity.

Whether it's a multi-hit affair or he strokes a double (or better), Hoerner's the pick to clear his total bases prop once again.

Nico Hoerner Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)

The Buck doesn't stop here

Byron Buxton would be one of baseball's most prolific power hitters if it wasn't for chronic injury. Despite the sheer amount of missed games this season and every season before it, Buxton is still a feared hitter when he steps into the batter's box. He ranks third in the American League (and sixth in MLB) with 28 home runs even though he's only appeared in 87 games.

Buxton ranks within the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and barrel rate, according to Baseball Savant. He hits the absolute piss out of the ball whenever he makes contact. The wrinkle here is he sometimes struggles to make consistent contact, as evidenced by the 30.7% strikeout rate. 

Fortunately for Buxton, the Kansas City Royals are starting Zack Greinke. The veteran righty may very well wind up in Cooperstown after he retires, and he can still be effective in bursts, but Greinke simply doesn't miss bats anymore. His 13.5% strikeout rate is the lowest of his entire career and he owns a hard-hit percentage that ranks in the 15th percentile.

He doesn't issue walks either, so Greinke is constantly living in the strike zone. Factor in his lowest ground-ball percentage since 2007 and he's not suppressing fly balls like he once did, either. 

The recipe is there for Buxton to go deep barring a last-minute lineup scratch.

Byron Buxton Prop: Over 0.5 home runs (+250) 

MLB parlay

Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $147.50 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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