It really feels like all of today's MLB attention is turned to Iowa for the Field of Dreams game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs. There are only eight games on the schedule and six of them are matinee affairs.
With that said, we have searched the corn fields and still found some great value for today's player prop bets, including a total bases prop for a high-flying Orioles slugger, and Iowa might not be so heavenly for Reds rookie Nick Lodolo.
Check out our best MLB player prop bets for Thursday, August 11.
MLB props for August 11
- Kelly Over 18.5 outs recorded (-120)
- Santander Over 1.5 TB (+100)
- Lodolo Under 17.5 outs recorded (-135)
Picks made on 8/11/2022 at 12:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
You can make the case that Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly is the hottest pitcher in baseball at the moment. Kelly will look to keep mowing down opponents when he and the D-backs welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates to the desert this afternoon.
Kelly has been dominant since the start of July, pitching to a 1.49 ERA while limiting opponents to a .185 batting average over his last seven starts. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of those outings.
On top of that, Kelly has been working deep into ball games, pitching nearly seven innings per start over that stretch. And he could have another long outing against the lowly Buccos.
The Pirates have been pillaged by opposing right-hander this season. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in batting average and OPS while ranking 27th in wRC+ when digging in against right-handed hurlers. They also strike out at the third-highest rate against righties this season.
So, with Kelly’s outs recorded number at 18.5, the Over looks like a solid bet. He has gone Over this number in three straight starts and in six of his last seven overall.
Merrill Kelly Prop: Over 18.5 outs recorded (-120)
Santander stays swinging
The Baltimore Orioles are soaring up the standings. The O’s are 23-8 over their last 31 games and are now tied for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. That’s thanks in part to an offense that has really turned it on since the start of July, especially slugger Anthony Santander.
Santander has been absolutely locked in since coming out of the All-Star break. The Orioles’ outfielder is hitting .368 with a 1.073 OPS with 10 extra-base hits over 17 games, so it’s no surprise we are locking in on him to go Over his total bases prop in tonight’s matchup against the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox look like they have thrown in the towel on the season. They have lost four in a row and are now five games out of the Wild Card. Tonight, they hand the ball to rookie Josh Winckowski, and the transition to the big leagues has been a rocky one for the right-hander.
Winckowski made his first career start against this same Orioles team back on May 28. He allowed four runs on six hits in three innings in that game, and not a ton has changed since then.
The righty owns a 4.82 expected ERA while surrendering a .271 expected batting average to opponents. On top of that, he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters at just 5.76 per nine innings.
Mix in a Boston bullpen that now ranks 27th in ERA and 21st in opponent batting average, and Santander has a great opportunity to go Over 1.5 total bases once again. Something he has done in six of his last seven games and in nine of his last 12 overall.
Anthony Santander Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Low day for Lodolo
You knew we had to go to the cornfields of Iowa to bring you a prop on Field of Dreams Day, even if the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds is a little underwhelming. But at least having a wager on this game will make it a little more heavenly.
OK. Sorry for the puns. We are going with Reds' starting pitcher Nick Lodolo to go Under his out-recorded prop of 17.5. Lodolo is a rookie left-hander making just his 10th career start. And while he has been a solid arm for the Reds to rely on with a 4.14 expected ERA, this number is a little too high.
That’s partly because Lodolo does a couple of things of interest. One, he strikes out a fair amount of batters at 12.1 per nine innings. But he also walks a fair amount of hitters as well, giving up 4.2 free passes per nine. And that means he can get that pitch count up quickly.
Lodolo needs to complete six innings to cash the Over, something he’s done just twice in his nine career starts.
Now, he faces a Cubs team that features a middle-of-the-pack lineup that ranks 17th in batting average and OPS in the second half of the season. The Cubs still have some pop in their lineup, and strike out a fair bit against lefties.
If they can also work a few walks, it’s likely Lodolo builds up that pitch count and the Reds go to the bullpen before the sixth.
Nick Lodolo Prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (-135)
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