It’s been a tough start to the season for our MLB prop bets. But what better way to get back on track than Jacob deGrom’s first start of the season! After the New York Mets’ season got delayed they will open the year Monday in Philadelphia against the Phillies.
And while the traditional deGrom Day MLB prop bet may be a thing of the past, there is still a way to find betting value in his starts. We bring you that and more in our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Monday, April 5.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Mets Five-Inning ML (-135) AND Jacob deGrom Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-145)
For those who don’t know, deGrom Day used to be a pretty big deal around the Covers’ office (we even had a deGrom gong). We would get giddy because deGrom Day meant almost always cashing a first-five inning Under in his starts.
It was a perfect bet because deGrom was so dominant, and the Mets were just God-awful at the dish. While deGrom is as dominant as ever, the latter part of that statement is no longer true. With the likes of Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, and Jeff McNeil, the Mets owned the MLB’s best batting average last season. Then they went out and added superstar Francisco Lindor to the mix.
So, the best way to extract the most value out of deGrom starts these days is on the five-inning moneyline. Since 2018, deGrom owns a 2.10 ERA, an 0.94 WHIP, and has 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings and he faces a Phillies team that has gotten off to a hot start by sweeping the Atlanta Braves—but all three of those games were close and they didn’t score more than four runs in those games while striking out an average of 12 times per game.
deGrom has also dominated the Phillies recently, as in four full starts against the Phillies since 2018 (he got pulled early in his last due to an injury) he has allowed three runs on 18 hits while averaging 9.5 punchouts in nearly eight innings of work per outing.
Cubs Five-Inning ML (+125)
Trevor Williams may be one of those guys that was just dying to get out of the awful situation in Pittsburgh. The right-hander gets a fresh start in Chicago and makes his Cubs debut Monday night a Wrigley Field.
Williams is coming off two tough years in Pittsburgh, but the two seasons prior to that he pitched to a 3.56 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP and is coming off a Spring Training where he looked fantastic. Williams faces a Brewers lineup that still looks full of holes and scored just eight runs over their first three games and is second in the MLB in strikeouts.
Williams also has a good track record against the Brewers, pitching to a 3.07 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in eight career starts against Milwaukee.
The Brewers counter with Brett Anderson, a journeyman lefty that has never been one for missing bats, allowing a .273 opponent batting average over the last three seasons, and gave up two runs on five hits and two walks in 4 1-3 innings against the Cubbies last season. That means the Cubs are a good bet to have the lead through five innings tonight.
Padres Team Total Over 4.5 (+100)
The Padres have lofty goals this season and got off to a solid start, taking three of four from the Arizona Diamondbacks to begin the year. Eric Hosmer has carried the offense early on as he has started the year on fire, hitting a ridiculous .636 with two home runs and six RBIs in his first three games.
Tonight, they face off against Anthony DeSclafani, who is making his Giants’ debut. The right-hander is coming off a down year with the Reds, pitching to a 7.22 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. While DeSclafani is not as bad as those numbers suggest, the Padres were one of the best hitting teams against right-handed pitching in 2020, ranking sixth in average and fourth in OPS.
Mix in a San Francisco bullpen that is continuing its trend from a season ago of giving up leads and has a 6.48 ERA this season, we like the Padres to go Over their team total in this one.
Yesterday's MLB record: 1-1, -0.13 units
Season MLB betting record: 4-8, -4.81 units
MLB betting card for April 5
- Mets Five-Inning ML (-135)
- Jacob deGrom Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-145)
- Cubs Five-Inning ML (+125)
- Padres Team Total Over 4.5 (+100)
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