It’s a bases-loaded day of MLB action with all 30 teams taking the diamond on Tuesday. That means there is a cornucopia of betting options in the MLB player props market.
Jose Ramirez continues to rake against right handers, and he gets a juicy matchup against the White Sox’s Lance Lynn. Meanwhile, Justin Verlander gets his first real test as a member of the Mets when he takes the ball vs. the Rays, and Freddie Freeman will stay hot as the Dodgers host the Twins.
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB prop picks for Tuesday, May 16.
MLB props for May 16
Picks made on 5/16/2023 at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Prop bet #1: Red-hot Ramirez
The Cleveland Guardians' offense is bad. Like, really bad... and poor Jose Ramirez can’t do it all on his own. That said, he’ll give it his best shot when he digs in at the dish against Lance Lynn and the Chicago White Sox tonight.
Ramirez is having a solid if unspectacular year at the plate — hitting .285 with a .821 OPS — but he's starting to find his rhythm in the last few games. Ramirez is 5-for-10 (.500) over the last three games and has hit one double in all three of those games.
He also continues to have much more success when facing right-handed pitching. This season, Ramirez is hitting .344 with a .926 OPS when facing off against righties and he gets a really juicy matchup tonight against Lynn.
The White Sox’s righty, like most of his teammates, is having a tough start to the 2023 campaign. Lynn is pitching to a 5.46 expected ERA this season while surrendering a .273 expected batting average and a .489 expected slugging percentage — both of which are in the Bottom 23% of the league.
Lefties have been the main culprits, crushing him for a .350 average and a 1.109 OPS, and Ramirez has been a thorn in his side for a long time.
Ramirez is 11-for-32 (.344) with two doubles and four home runs in his career vs. Lynn. That’s good for a .578 expected slugging percentage. Ramirez has his extra-base swag back and I’m taking him to go Over 1.5 total bases for the fourth straight game at solid plus money.
Jose Ramirez Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
Prop bet #2: Verlander Vanquished
The training wheels will finally come off for Justin Verlander as a member of the New York Mets. After two softball opponents in his first two starts as a member of New York, things get a little tougher tonight when it hosts the Tampa Bay Rays — aka the best team in baseball.
The 40-year-old future Hall of Famer made his Mets' debut against the Detroit Tigers, arguably the worst-hitting team in baseball when facing right-handed pitching. He went five innings allowing two runs on five hits (two homers) while striking out five. Verlander followed that up by limiting the Cincinnati Reds to one run on two hits while striking out seven in seven innings.
While those are good numbers against bad teams, he could see some regression against the Rays. For starters, on top of the home runs, he was giving up a lot of hard contact. Enough for a .485 expected slugging percentage. And while his ERA sits at 2.25, his expected ERA is almost two runs high at 4.23.
Now, he faces a Rays team that leads the MLB by a mile in OPS and wRC+ when facing righties. They also own the ninth-lowest strikeout rate when facing them this season.
Verlander is averaging a strikeout an inning so far this season, against teams that ranked in the Bottom third of the MLB in K-rate, and because of their ineptitude against righties it has allowed him to work deep into the game. He won’t have that luxury vs. Tampa.
Six inning of work and six Ks in this matchup would be a good day for Verlander, and I’m not sure he has a good day in him. His Under 6.5 strikeouts at plus money looks like a solid play here today.
Justin Verlander Prop: Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120)
Prop bet #3: Rocking in the Free(man) world
We’re going to keep riding this Freddie Freeman hot streak as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Minnesota Twins in an interleague matchup on Tuesday night.
Freeman is in another one of his patented grooves and the baseball must look the size of a melon to him right now. The former MVP is currently in the middle of a five-game hitting streak where he has gone 9-for-20 (.450) with a 1.422 OPS, including five extra-base hits. In the month of March, he is hitting .333 with a 1.031 OPS with three home runs and eight doubles.
Tonight, he’ll dig in against Twins’ right-hander Bailey Ober. Ober has a very good 1.85 ERA through four starts this season but this matchup against the Dodgers will be his toughest of the season.
He has taken the ball against the Nationals, Royals, Guardians, and the slumping Padres... none of those teams rank better than 21st in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season. The Dodgers rank second. Despite those soft matchups, Ober could be due for some regression with an expected ERA sitting nearly two runs higher at 3.63.
On top of that, when Ober is betting hit, he’s getting hit fairly hard. His expected slugging percentage is sitting at .417 which rank in the Bottom 39% of the MLB, as too does his average exit velocity and barrel percentage.
An elite lefty bat like Freeman, who is also on fire, has an edge in this matchup. He’s gone Over 1.5 total bases in nine of his 13 games played this month, and at plus money, I’m backing him to do so again.
Freddie Freeman Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
