Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Lyles is the Fade King

Prop bet #1: No smiles for Lyles

Jordan Lyles may have taken the mantle of baseball’s best fade from Patrick Corbin. That will happen when your team has lost all 14 of your starts to kick off the season as the Kansas City Royals have in Lyles' case.

Tonight, he takes the ball against the division-rival Detroit Tigers. And while the Tigers might not have the most ferocious lineup, that might not matter.

That’s because Lyles is nothing more than an innings eater tossing glorified batting practice at this point in his career. The right-hander has a 5.04 expected ERA and is surrendering a .491 expected slugging percentage to opponents. He is also striking out just 17.3% of batters, which ranks near the bottom of MLB.

Lyles’ total earned runs allowed prop is sitting at 2.5 — and is juiced to -160 — but there is still value in the Over. Lyles has surrendered three earned runs or more in 12 of his last 13 starts and it’s not like he’s been going up against the toughest lineups.

Recently, he’s struggled against the Reds, Marlins, Nationals, White Sox, and Brewers. All of them rank in the bottom third of MLB in wRC+. And while the Tigers are among those ranks as well, they’ve found their hitting shoes of late. Detroit has plated five runs or more in eight of its last 10 games and ranks third in wRC+ over that span.

The Lyles run-fest continues tonight. 

Jordan Lyles prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-160)

Prop bet #2: Gomber's a goner

If there was another pitcher to challenge Lyles for baseball’s best fade, Colorado Rockies lefty Austin Gomber might be up to the task.

While the Rockies have somewhat stunningly won seven of Gomber’s 14 starts, it’s usually no thanks to the hittable southpaw. The left-hander has some of the worst numbers in all of MLB. Gomber is pitching to a .721 xERA while surrendering a .316 xBA and .567 xSLG this season. All three of those marks are in the Bottom 3% in the MLB. On top of that, he ranks in the seventh percentile in strikeout rate.

So basically, he gets hit often — and hard — and doesn’t strike anyone out. That means good things for the resurgent Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds have looked like an entirely different team since calling up uber-rookie Elly De La Cruz. The team is 10-2 since calling up De La Cruz which includes winning the last eight games in a row. The Reds rank eighth in batting average and OPS while scoring 5.92 runs per game over that stretch.

But even before this Reds resurrection, they rocked Gomber. Cincy blasted the Rockies lefty for five runs on eight hits and two walks in just 4 1/3 innings back on May 17. They’ve also been generally good vs. southpaws this season, ranking sixth in batting average and 13th in OPS.

I’m betting on another short outing tonight. Gomber averages just over 4 2/3 innings per start this season. He has a short leash, averaging fewer than 80 pitches per start, and has completed more than five innings in just six of his 14 outings. 

Austin Gomber prop: Under 15.5 outs (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Crawford steamrolls Wacha

Let’s jump from one streaking team to another. The San Francisco Giants come into tonight’s National League West showdown with the San Diego Padres riding a seven-game winning streak, which includes a three-game sweep of the rival Los Angeles Dodgers where they outscored them 29-8.

Tonight, they’ll try to make it eight in a row when they dig into the batter’s box vs. veteran starter Michael Wacha, and there is one Giants player salivating for this matchup.

Now, before we get to that, the NL West is insane. If you had told me that neither Dodgers nor Padres would be in first or second place in the division at this point in the season, I would have called you crazy. But that’s where we sit on June 19.

The Giants' turnaround has been, in part, fueled by their bats getting hot. And one of those bats belongs to Brandon Crawford.

The veteran shortstop was having an awful year at the dish, but things turned around for him once the calendar flipped over to June. Crawford is hitting .343 with a .836 OPS over his last 11 games (nine starts), which includes four doubles and he has a great chance to keep swinging a hot stick tonight against Wacha.

For starters, Wacha is a prime candidate for regression. While he has a solid looking 2.89 ERA, his FIP sits at 3.40 and his xERA is at 4.05. His opponent xBA and xSLG are also subpar at .244 and .419, respectively.

More importantly, Crawford has owned this matchup, going 7-for-12 in his career vs. Wacha with four doubles and a triple. That’s good for a .397 xBA and a .552 xSLG.

Crawford has recorded two or more total bases six times in the last 11 games and three times in his last five starts. Two or more total bases at +210 is a great wager tonight as a result.

Brandon Crawford prop: 2+ total bases (+210 at bet365)