With all-day baseball on tap, there is plenty to dig into across the MLB player props market.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 2, including why Jake Burger will light up Jacob Lopez.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jake Burger |
Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | -103 |
 Rafael Devers |
Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | -122 |
 Tomoyuki Sugano |
Over 3.5 earned runs | +102 |
Jake Burger Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-103)
Get those burgers on the grill, STAT! This game kicks off early this afternoon, and we are backing Texas Rangers slugger Jake Burger to go over his hits, runs, and RBI prop against Athletics southpaw Jacob Lopez.
Burger has an elite rating on Batters-Box’s current-season dataset, where he also has nearly 76% arsenal coverage against Lopez’s pitch mix.
The Rangers first baseman has been punishing the ball over his last 10 games, posting a .548 SLG, .765 xSLG and .290 ISO, while generating a 26.1% barrel rate. He has also crushed left-handed pitching this season. Over his last 60 at-bats against lefties, Burger owns a .636 SLG and is still generating a 25% barrel rate.
Lopez has been very solid for the Athletics, but he has allowed more than 70% elevation and a hard-hit rate of nearly 44% to the last 30 right-handed hitters he has faced. Those right-handed hitters also own a .288 xBA and .482 xSLG.
- Time: 2:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, RSN
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-122)
The third-highest-rated hitter on the day is San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers, who has homered in back-to-back games. Some will argue he should not be touched after going deep in consecutive games, but that ideology is flawed.
So far this season, across 36 elite ratings, Devers has surpassed this prop 58.33% of the time, while going deep more than 25% of the time.
The big fella draws Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler, against whom he has nearly 90% arsenal coverage. The last 60 left-handed hitters Chandler has faced have been producing a ton of hard-hit balls while elevating the baseball at a very high rate. During that stretch, those hitters also own a .389 xBA and .548 xSLG.
Devers has been outstanding over his last 10 games, posting a .789 SLG and .421 ISO while generating a 51.7% hard-hit rate and 17.2% barrel rate.
Despite the offensive explosion from both teams last night, expect Devers to get involved tonight.
Take this down to -130.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNP, NBCSBA
Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 earned runs (+102)
It is extremely hard to worry about how cold the Baltimore Orioles’ bats have become when Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano owns a 12.75 ERA and 2.42 WHIP over his last three outings. Plus, he has the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box today.
Sugano draws a fully elite-rated Orioles lineup with seven elite-rated hitters and two with strong ratings.
In five of Sugano’s last 10 poorly rated matchups, he has allowed five or more runs. It might be more fun to alt this prop up for better value, especially because manager Warren Schaefer gives him a very long leash and rarely pulls him early.
With the amount of power the Orioles’ bats can produce, this is well worth a look today.
Do not pay juice for this prop. We are already asking the Orioles to go above and beyond their first-five runs average.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, MASN
- Prop picks: 456-907, -9.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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