It’s a getaway day in the big leagues, and with eight games on the board, we’ve got MLB player props to bet on all day.
I explain why you can’t go broke fading Baltimore Orioles pitching, and I am stunned we’re still getting the prices we are for two of the best sluggers in baseball to drive in runs on Thursday, June 12.
Best MLB player props today
Torres o1.5 TB (+155)
Judge o0.5 RBI (+125)
Tucker o0.5 RBI (+200)
MLB props for June 12
Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 total bases (+155 at bet365)
It certainly feels like you can’t go wrong by fading Baltimore Orioles pitching. We're doing exactly that with Dean Kremer toeing the rubber in the finale of their series against the Detroit Tigers.
Kremer’s brief hot streak came to an end last time out after he surrendered five runs on eight hits against the Athletics. It was the seventh time in 13 starts he’s allowed four or more runs, including five runs on four hits and four walks to this same Tigers team on April 27.
The 29-year-old right-hander now ranks in the 33rd percentile in expected ERA and the 19th in opponent expected batting average and doesn’t have real swing-and-miss stuff.
So, he won’t be happy to see this Tigers lineup again. Current Detroit batters have combined for a .319 xBA and a .539 xSLG, and the guy who’s had the most success against him is Gleyber Torres.
The Tigers' second baseman is 8-for-26 in his career vs. Kremer, good for a .311 xBA and a .471 xSLG.
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (+125 at bet365)
There are two things I don’t understand about New York Yankees games.
Why do opposing teams still pitch to Aaron Judge? And why are oddsmakers still giving us plus money for Judge to drive in a run?
Judge enters tonight’s game against the Kansas City Royals with a ridiculous 1.296 OPS, 25 home runs, and 59 RBI. He’s also hitting .405 with a 1.476 OPS, seven home runs, and 12 RBI over his last 11. And I’m not sure Seth Lugo is the guy to slow Judge down.
The Royals’ veteran right-hander has a 3.46 ERA but is due for a regression as his expected ERA is nearly two runs higher at 5.22. Plus, his opponent expected batting average is .289. Both rank in the Bottom 13% among MLB pitchers.
Lugo has solid numbers against Judge, but when he last started against the Yanks back on April 14, Judge went 2-for-4.
Judge has driven in a run in four of his last five games, and my MLB picks will happily back the best hitter in baseball to keep that going tonight at +125.
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 RBI (+200 at bet365)
Kyle Tucker is hitting .274 with a .895 OPS, 13 home runs, and 43 RBI. Over his last 19 games, that average is up to .318, and the OPS is at .932.
He’s also recorded at least one RBI in three straight games and four of his last six overall.
Yet, somehow, we are still getting +200 for the Chicago Cubs outfielder to drive in another one tonight.
Some of the reason for that has to be the matchup against Pittsburgh Pirates starter Andrew Heaney. The veteran southpaw should have the splits edge against the left-handed hitting Tucker, but this matchup is really in Tucker’s favor.
Heaney has been solid this season, pitching to a 3.24 ERA, but he’s also been quite lucky. His expected ERA is 4.70, which ranks in the 20th percentile. Meanwhile, his expected opponent batting average ranks in the 17th percentile.
Then there’s the fact that both Tucker and Heaney have reverse splits this season.
Tucker is hitting .296 with a .943 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers, while Heaney is allowing lefty batters to hit for a .268 average and a .856 OPS.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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