We're going East-to-West with our MLB picks tonight, finding value in a pair of moneylines (plus a total bet) based on prices available at Polymarket.
Read on to see why our MLB experts like a pair of AL West teams to win, while an AL East clash should produce plenty of runs.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: TB/TOR o7.5 |
+102 |
 Jon Metler: SEA ML |
-133 |
 Neil Parker: TEX ML |
-117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rays/Blue Jays Over 7.5
Price: 49¢ (+102) at Polymarket
Let’s put the familiarity angle to the test today. Both starters faced these same lineups in their previous outings, with Drew Rasmussen allowing seven hits and three runs, while Kevin Gausman gave up two runs. Now, we get a controlled environment (inside the dome at the Rogers Centre), the Toronto Blue Jays lineup is getting healthier, and the Tampa Bay Rays can put up runs. Per THE BAT, the fair price on this over is closer to -115.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Mariners moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
George Kirby has been surgical this season, allowing just 2.08 BB/9, which is not a good matchup for the Houston Astros lineup. Kirby isn’t going to hand out free passes and then leave pitches over the heart of the plate for aggressive, mistake-hitting batters like Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to launch into the seats. Instead, Kirby is going to force Houston to string together multiple hits: A challenge for an Astros offense that lacks depth and has struggled to consistently turn the lineup over. The Seattle Mariners are trading around 57-cent favorites, but I think they should be closer to 62 cents (-163).
Neil Parker's expert pick: Rangers moneyline
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
The Diamondbacks have hit the skids at the dish, with a 28th-ranked xwOBA across their past 12 games, while the Texas Rangers check in sixth. Additionally, Texas ranks 11th in wOBA against righties for the year, while Arizona sits 27th — that's a monstrous gap that isn’t priced into these odds enough... and I also give Texas a pitching edge. Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi has outpitched his surface numbers for the year, with his 3.29 xFIP well below his 4.15 ERA, and Diamondbacks starter Mike Soroka has been beat around (to the tune of a .472 wOBA and 1.082 OPS) in his two road starts.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Guardians -1.5 | +130 |
| Read analysis in our Angels vs. Guardians predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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