Sunday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's heaviest hitters find themselves in mouthwatering matchups.
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are the hitters my MLB picks are targeting to leave their mark this afternoon.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Rafael Devers |
Over 1.5 total bases | -144 |
 Tanner Gordon |
Over 3.5 earned runs | -105 |
 Javier Assad |
Under 3.5 strikeouts | -120 |
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (-144)
No, this is not the sexiest price you've ever seen, but if you're not in the business of laying juice, you can always take his home run and double market instead. Still, with Rafael Devers ranking as one of the top-rated hitters across both Batters-Box datasets, it's hard to pass up this much data backing the San Francisco Giants slugger.
Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Devers owns a .327 batting average, .837 slugging percentage, and 1.287 OPS, while producing a 55.6% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.
He draws Colorado Rockies right-hander Tanner Gordon, whose arsenal Devers owns more than 65% coverage against. This season at home, Gordon has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .359 with a .538 slugging percentage and .408 wOBA. Those hitters have also generated a 59.5% elevation rate and a 54.8% hard-hit rate.
With Devers posting a .638 wOBA, 27.3% barrel rate, and 1.120 slugging percentage over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, how could I pass this up at Coors?
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Tanner Gordon Over 3.5 earned runs (-105)
Is asking for 4+ runs in essentially the first five innings a lot? Of course, but when you're in Coors with five elite-rated hitters and four more carrying strong ratings, it's very tough to ignore that data.
Tanner Gordon draws the highest-rated offense on the slate while carrying the day's worst pitcher rating. He enters this matchup with poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate.
At home this season, Gordon owns a 9.70 ERA, 6.00 xERA, and 1.83 WHIP. Opposing hitters are also generating a concerning 51.32% hard-hit rate and 15.79% barrel rate against him.
Over their last six games, the Giants have posted a 111 wRC+, .742 OPS, and .172 ISO. With an entire lineup rated above 0.50 on Batters-Box, the matchup is simply too strong for me to pass up. I am willing to lay the high run total because Gordon has struggled all season, and this profiles as another difficult outing for him.
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Javier Assad Under 3.5 strikeouts (-120)
One thing the St. Louis Cardinals do very well as a team is avoid strikeouts. On the season, they're just a hair over 20% as a team. In their last 21 games, that number is down to 17.8%. Their lineup is peppered with hitters carrying strikeout rates under 17%, six to be exact. Four of them sit at 13.3% or lower.
That lineup draws Chicago Cubs right-hander Javier Assad, who owns the lowest matchup strikeout on the slate, per Batters Box. In 15 default average ratings on Batters Box, Assad stays under four strikeouts 53.33% of the time.
At home this season, his strikeout rate is just 13.10%, and over his last three outings, it has dipped to 12.28%. At -120, this is a sweaty Under worth getting into. Anything much higher than this price, I would pass.
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
- Prop picks: 265-502, +17.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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