Opening Weekend of the 2026 MLB season has come and gone, which usually means it's time to overreact to small sample sizes. But there are a few things MLB player props bettors should take note of.
Like the “swing for the fences” mentality from the Athletics, and how it can lead to a ton of strikeouts. And how, the Rockies are still the Rockies.
I’ve found my three favorite MLB picks for Monday, March 30.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Munetaka Murakami |
Over 0.5 RBIs | +175 |
 Cody Ponce |
Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -108 |
 Bryce Elder |
Over 4.5 Strikeouts | -128 |
Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 RBIs (+175)
The Chicago White Sox are 0-3. Which isn’t surprising. But it feels like no one is talking about it thanks to the start Munetaka Murakami is having to his MLB career.
The Japanese star has shown his power bat is playing at the big-league level, hitting three home runs in his first three MLB games, and he’s got a great chance to stay productive as the Pale Hose open a series with the Miami Marlins.
The Marlins hand the ball to right-hander Chris Paddack, who makes his debut with his new team. Paddack better hope the change of scenery works for him, because he’s been in the Bottom 10% among MLB pitchers in both expected batting average and expected slugging.
With the lefty slugging Murakami also having the splits edge, I love backing him to drive in another in this matchup.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, Marlins.TV
Cody Ponce Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Whatever the Toronto Blue Jays are doing with their starting pitchers. It’s working.
Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, and Eric Lauer combined to punch out 50 Athletics batters during their three-game sweep over the weekend.
Next man up is Cody Ponce. The former Pittsburgh Pirates prospect went to the Korean Baseball Organization and completely reworked his game, which resulted in him striking out 252 batters in 180 2/3 innings pitched and earning the KBO’s MVP award last season.
The advanced metrics support him in carrying that success over to the big leagues. His spin rate on his fastball matches some of the best in the MLB, and paired with a devastating changeup, Ponce should rack up the Ks back in the bigs as well.
A matchup with the Colorado Rockies should help get his feet wet as well.
It’s the same old for the Rockies, who got swept on opening weekend with the sixth-highest K-rate. And that was against the Marlins.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SportsNet
Bryce Elder Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)
The Athletics have a very young and exciting lineup that’s going to hit a lot of home runs. But they’re also going to strike out a lot as they swing for the fences.
The A’s struck out 50 times against Blue Jays starters over the weekend, and it feels like we should be fading them with opposing pitcher strikeouts, even with a low K-rate guy like Atlanta Braves starter Bryce Elder, who gets the ball tonight.
Elder actually saw his strikeout numbers get a bump late last season, upping his K-rate to over 25% in September. The other thing to like about backing the right-hander with a strikeout prop is that he’s a workhorse, pitching at least six innings in nine of his last 11 starts last season.
His alternate Ks of 6+ (+132) and 7+ (+350) are worth a look, but for our best bet purposes, Over 4.5 strikeouts looks great today.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, BravesVision
- Prop picks: 5-3, +1.87 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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