The weekend is officially here, and so is a loaded Friday slate. I found three of my favorite MLB player props to help kick things off on the right foot.
Let's dive right into my three favorite MLB player props for July 31.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Eric Fedde |
Under 3.5 Strikeouts | -157 |
 CJ Abrams |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | +120 |
| Hunter Goodman |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | -116 |
Eric Fedde Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-157)
After coming off back-to-back extra-inning wins, the Chicago White Sox head to St. Petersburg to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. The White Sox will send right-hander Eric Fedde to the mound, who has endured his fair share of struggles this season.
Those issues have been even more apparent on the road, where he owns just a 17.2% strikeout rate. On top of that, he has posted an 18% whiff rate and a 22.7% chase rate outside the zone away from home.
Those numbers have remained fairly consistent over his last few starts, which is why I like Fedde to stay under his strikeout prop tonight.
According to Batters-Box, Fedde has stayed under this number in 56.25% of his 48 games with a poorly rated matchup strikeout percentage. In 28 road starts with a poor matchup rating, he has stayed under in 57.14% of those outings.
With how contact-heavy the Rays are, this sets up as a prime spot for Fedde to finish Under 3.5 strikeouts.
I would play this down to -160.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Rays.TV
CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
One of the hottest hitters in baseball right now is Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams. The young star enters Friday slashing .412/.863/1.330 across his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
On top of that, he has generated a nearly 50% hard hit rate and a 15.6% barrel rate during that stretch.
Abrams draws Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder this evening, a pitcher against whom he owns 100% arsenal coverage.
Elder has been unable to slow down left-handed hitters all season. Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, they own a .431 xBA, .833 xSLG, and .395 xwOBA, while producing a 47.5% hard hit rate and a 15% barrel rate.
The Nationals offense has been one of the hottest in baseball over the last few weeks, and I think that momentum continues tonight. Abrams is in another excellent spot to clear his total bases prop.
His elite rating trends are not the strongest, so I would shop for the best number available, but I'd still play this down to +110.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, NATS
Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-116)
Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman has been in a bit of a slump over his last few games. However, he is still barreling the baseball and making plenty of hard contact, and I think he is in a great spot to turn things around against Kansas City Royals right-hander Michael Wacha.
Across Goodman's last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he owns a .571 SLG, .838 OPS, and a 37.5% HR/FB rate. On top of that, he has barreled the baseball 25% of the time while producing a 41.7% hard hit rate.
My biggest concern with the Rockies catcher is his strikeout rate, but Wacha owns just a 17% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season, making that less of a concern.
Wacha has also run into plenty of issues against right-handed hitters. The last 30 he has faced have produced just a 30% ground-ball rate, along with a 47.8% hard-hit rate and an 8.7% barrel rate.
Those hitters also own a .447 xBA, .814 xSLG, and .366 xwOBA during that span.
If this game were being played anywhere other than Coors Field, Goodman would likely be plus money to go over 1.5 total bases. Instead, we have to pay the Coors tax.
I would still play this down to -120.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Royals.TV
- Prop picks: 352-684, -13.9 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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