Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Seattle Swings and Misses vs Gallen

Prop bet #1: Electrifying Elly

I’m not sure the Elly De La Cruz odds should ever be this high to steal a base, but certainly not in this matchup.

De La Cruz has stolen bases for the Cincinnati Reds in three of his last four games, including a three-steal night vs. the Phillies on Wednesday. In addition to that, he’s been on fire offensively over the last week with impressive slash numbers, including a .571 on-base percentage.

Today’s matchup for the young electric phenom is a strong one. In the previous two seasons, nobody pitching today has had more bases stolen on them than Texas Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi. I can end the analysis of the handicap there. We have a hot player in Cruz with a great matchup. I’ll take this number and run.

Elly De La Cruz prop: Anytime stolen base (+175 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Judge executes

A birthday home run for Aaron Judge? Why not? Judge has been in one of the most significant slumps of his career, and this is a good day to break out of it. After all, the matchup at his disposal is also promising. 

Colin Rea will take the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers tonight and has been an impressive hurler throughout his career. That said, Judge will match up favorably with him. There’s not much historical data to go by as Judge is just 1-for-1 lifetime against Rea. However, the metrics like the matchup.

Rea’s expected wOBA and expected ERA are much higher than his actual numbers. In addition, a looming hard-hit issue for Rea has started to emerge. That’s not exactly the issue you want when facing Judge and the New York Yankees. 

The issues for Judge this season have surprisingly come against the fastball, and he won’t see much of it today as Rea is primarily a breaking ball pitcher. To add to his favorable matchup, Rea’s primary pitch is the sinker, which Judge has hit well and hard throughout his career.

Aaron Judge prop: Anytime home run (+240 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Mariners caught fishing again

Another night on the diamond, another day of betting the Seattle Mariners to strike out a ton.

The Mariners lead the league in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeouts per game. They’ll enter this game averaging over 11 Ks in their last three contests and over 10 on the season. Those are not the issues you want to deal with when facing Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen. 

He’ll come into this game with a K-rate and a chase rate that is in the Top 15% of the league. He’s exceeded this number in two of his last three games, and everything points to that continuing in such a good matchup. I projected this number at 8.2, so I’m happily taking the Over and may play a few alternate numbers in the Zac Gallen odds at some nice prices. 

Zac Gallen prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (+120 at FanDuel)