The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds wrap up a three-game set this afternoon as the Bucs look to complete the sweep.
Neither team is scoring many runs lately, which is exactly why my Pirates vs Reds predictions see value in the Under in the series finale.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, September 26.
Pirates vs Reds prediction
Pirates vs Reds best bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds have faced off many times already this season as NL Central counterparts. Of their 12 meetings, the Under has cashed 11 times.
While Cincinnati remains in the mix for the last NL Wild Card, it’s not exactly an elite ball club in any particular area. The same can be said for the Bucs.
Looking at today’s pitching matchup, there’s reason to believe it could be another low-scoring affair. Nick Lodolo allowed just one earned run to the Pirates earlier this season, and he’s been a solid arm for Cincy overall. As for Braxton Ashcraft, he owns a 2.77 ERA in September and has also pitched well against the Reds.
The Under screams value, and the trends suggest we won’t see a ton of runs scored in the rubber match.
Pirates vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Although he’s allowed nine earned runs across his last two outings, Lodolo still owns a 3.44 ERA and has pitched relatively well in day games, compiling a 3.51 mark. Before the previous two outings, Lodolo cashed the Under in earned runs surrendered in six of seven appearances.
The Reds have struggled to score runs in this matchup, totaling just three on Wednesday in the extra-innings loss and two in the series opener. Cincinnati also put up only one run in the finale against the Chicago Cubs. Ashcraft has barely allowed any runs in September, too.
Bryan Reynolds has cashed the Over in hits in four of his last five contests. He also happens to be 6-for-14 lifetime against Lodolo, which is a positive sign he’ll keep the offense rolling this afternoon.
Pirates vs Reds SGP
- Under 8
- Nick Lodolo Under 2.5 earned runs
- Reds team total Under 4.5
- Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 hits
Pirates vs Reds odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +145 | Cincinnati -175
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-155) | Cincinnati -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Pirates vs Reds trend
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 123 games (+27.10 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Reds.
How to watch Pirates vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Thursday, September 25, 2025 |
| First pitch | 12:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Braxton Ashcraft (4-3, 2.62 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Nick Lodolo (8-8, 3.44 ERA) |
Pirates vs Reds latest injuries
Pirates vs Reds weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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