Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

Paul Skenes should have a far better record than his current 4-6 mark. The Pittsburgh Pirates’ ace leads the majors with a 1.85 ERA, but he’s just 1-4 in 10 starts since May.

He just hasn’t had much run support: Skenes has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of those 10 starts and allowed two runs or fewer in three of his four losses.

Skenes already has a no-decision against the Brewers this season, throwing six innings of four-hit ball while giving up a single run and fanning eight in a 6-5 Pirates win.

Offense hasn’t been a problem for the Milwaukee Brewers, as they’ve tallied at least eight runs over their last five wins. Milwaukee sits comfortably in eighth, averaging 4.69 runs per game.

They’ve provided plenty of support for rookie starter Jacob Misiorowski, who’s gone 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in two starts, which helps when his team has provided 23 runs in those two appearances.

After throwing five innings of no-hit ball in his 6-0 debut win over St. Louis, Misiorowski went six strong, allowing just two runs and a single hit in a 17-6 thumping of the Twins.

This will be a great pitching matchup, but the 6.5 scoring line is begging for an Over bet, especially since the two teams have topped the total in five of the last six head-to-heads. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have also combined for seven runs in seven of their last nine meetings.

The other rub can be found in their respective relief units. Pirates relievers own a collective 3.98 ERA (18th) while the Brewers bullpen is 20th with a 4.29 mark. So even if Skenes and Misiorowski escape relatively unscathed, things will likely unravel once they're back in the dugout.

Skenes has faced the Brewers twice in his career, and he’s gone over the 7.5 strikeout prop both times, with 20 total.

Last time out, he fanned nine Detroit Tigers in six innings, making it four times in his seven starts where he struck out at least eight, missing that mark in two other starts by a single punch out.

While the Pirates haven’t been able to support Skenes, they haven’t completely gone radio silent offensively, tallying at least six runs in three of Skenes’ last six starts, with many of those runs coming after he was pulled.